Dec 457/98 M Print Q1998
AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS COMMISSION
Safety Net Review
Wages
APRIL 1998
CONTENTS
Page | ||||||
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS |
iv | |||||
CHAPTER 1 - THE ACTU'S CLAIM |
4 | |||||
CHAPTER 2 - THE APRIL 1997 DECISION |
5 | |||||
CHAPTER 3 - THE PROCEEDINGS |
5 | |||||
CHAPTER 4 - OUTLINE OF RESPONSES TO THE WAGE CLAIM |
6 | |||||
4.1 Introduction |
6 | |||||
4.2 Responses |
6 | |||||
4.2.1 Employer Associations |
6 | |||||
4.2.2 Governments |
7 | |||||
4.2.3 Others |
8 | |||||
CHAPTER 5 - THE LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK |
8 | |||||
CHAPTER 6 - ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS |
10 | |||||
6.1 Economic Conditions |
10 | |||||
6.2 The Economic Effects of a Safety Net Adjustment |
15 | |||||
6.3 Direct Costs of a Safety Net Adjustment |
15 | |||||
6.3.1 The ACTU Costing |
16 | |||||
6.3.2 The Joint Governments' Costing |
18 | |||||
6.3.2(a) The Joint Governments' Proposal |
19 | |||||
6.3.2(b) The ACTU Claim |
19 | |||||
6.3.3 The ACCI Costing |
21 | |||||
6.3.4 Conclusion |
22 | |||||
6.4 Indirect Costs of the ACTU Claim |
23 | |||||
6.4.1 Flow-on to Enterprise Agreements |
24 | |||||
6.4.1(a) Flow-on as a Result of the Terms of Existing Agreements |
24 | |||||
6.4.1(b) Flow-on to Future Bargaining Outcomes |
26 | |||||
6.4.2 Absorption |
26 | |||||
6.4.3 Higher Inflation |
26 | |||||
6.4.4 Effect on the Remuneration of Employees Not Subject to Either Formal Agreements or Awards |
26 | |||||
6.4.5 Conclusion |
27 | |||||
6.5 | ||||||
6.5 The Likely Effects of a Safety Net Adjustment on Aggregate Wages Growth |
6.6 2 | |||||
6.6 The Likely Effects of a Safety Net Adjustment on Inflation |
27 | |||||
6.7 The Likely Effects of a Safety Net Increase on the Level of Employment |
27 | |||||
6.7.1 Macro-Economic Effects |
28 | |||||
6.7.2 Micro-Economic Effects |
29 | |||||
6.8 The Effect of a Safety Net Adjustment on Productivity |
29 | |||||
6.9 Sectoral Effects |
30 | |||||
6.10 Conclusion |
31 | |||||
CHAPTER 7 - NEEDS AND THE LOW PAID |
32 | |||||
7.1 The Submissions |
32 | |||||
7.2 Conclusion |
38 | |||||
CHAPTER 8 - THE DECISION ON THE ACTU WAGE CLAIM |
39 | |||||
CHAPTER 9 - FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGE |
43 | |||||
9.1 The April 1997 Decision |
43 | |||||
9.2 The Submissions |
44 | |||||
9.3 Conclusion |
46 | |||||
CHAPTER 10 - PAID RATES AWARDS |
47 | |||||
10.1 The Proposals |
47 | |||||
10.2 Conclusion |
50 | |||||
CHAPTER 11 - CHANGES TO THE STATEMENT OF PRINCIPLES |
53 | |||||
11.1 Should We Retain a Statement of Principles? |
53 | |||||
11.2 Introduction |
55 | |||||
11.3 Agreement Making |
55 | |||||
11.4The Safety Net |
55 | |||||
11.5 Award Level Claims |
56 | |||||
11.6 Conversion of Paid Rates Awards to Minimum Rates Structures |
58 | |||||
11.7 Varying Paid Rates Awards for the Outcome of Agreement |
58 | |||||
11.8 Economic Incapacity |
59 | |||||
11.9 Federal Minimum Wage |
61 | |||||
ATTACHMENT A - STATEMENT OF PRINCIPLES |
63 | |||||
ATTACHMENT B -ECONOMIC CONDITIONS |
73 | |||||
ATTACHMENT C - EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF A SAFETY NET |
91 |
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
In this decision we use the following abbreviations:
ABS: Australian Bureau of Statistics
ACCI: Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
ACCIR: Australian Catholic Commission for Industrial Relations
ACM: Australian Chamber of Manufactures
ACOSS: Australian Council of Social Service
Act: Workplace Relations Act 1996
ACTU: Australian Council of Trade Unions
AMWU: Automotive, Food, Metals, Engineering, Printing and Kindred Industries Union
AWIRS: Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey
AWOTE: Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings
BCA: Business Council of Australia
Brotherhood: Brotherhood of St Laurence
EEASA: Engineering Employers Association, South Australia
EEH: ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
IR Act: Industrial Relations Act 1988
Joint Employers: MTIA, ACM, EEASA and MP&MSA
Joint Governments: Commonwealth, State of Queensland, State of South Australia, State of Tasmania, State of Victoria, State of Western Australia, Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory
Metal Industry Award: Metal Industry Award 1984 - Part I
MP&MSA: Master Plumbers' and Mechanical Services Association of Australia
MTA-NSW: Motor Traders' Association of New South Wales
MTA-SA: Motor Trade Association of South Australia
MTIA: Metal Trades Industry Association of Australia
New South Wales: State of New South Wales
NFF: National Farmers' Federation
NMA: National Meat Association of Australia
NUW: National Union of Workers
RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia
Retail motor industry: VACC, MTA-NSW, MTA-SA & TACC
RULC: Real Unit Labour Costs
SNA: Safety Net Adjustment
SNI: Safety Net Increase
TACC: Tasmanian Automobile Chamber of Commerce
VACC: Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce
Western Australia: State of Western Australia
WROLA Act: Workplace Relations and Other Legislation Amendment Act 1996
Dec 457/98 M Print Q1998
AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS COMMISSION
Workplace Relations Act 1996
s.113 applications for variation
s.108 reference to Full Bench
Textile, Clothing and Footwear Union of Australia
CLOTHING TRADES AWARD 1982
(ODN C No. 00696 of 1980)
[Print G0207 [C0037]]
(C No. 23634 of 1997)
Australia Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union
LAUNDRY INDUSTRY (VICTORIA) AWARD 1994
(ODN C No. 21626 of 1992)
[Print L3622 [L0125]]
(C No. 23645 of 1997)
THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY - ACCOMMODATION, HOTELS,
RESORTS AND GAMING AWARD 1995
(ODN C No. 02782 of 1986)
[Print M7207 [H0008]]
(C No. 23646 of 1997)
TANNING INDUSTRY AWARD 1992
(ODN C No. 22427 of 1991)
[Print K3165 [T0002]]
(C No. 23647 of 1997)
CHILD CARE INDUSTRY (AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY)
AWARD, 1992
(ODN C No. 03697 of 1985)
[Print M0876 [C0173]]
(C No. 23648 of 1997)
Automotive, Food, Metals, Engineering, Printing
and Kindred Industries Union
METAL INDUSTRY AWARD 1984 - PART I
(ODN C No. 02568 of 1984)
[Print F8925 [M0039]]
(C No. 23769 of 1997)
National Union of Workers
STORAGE SERVICES - GENERAL - INTERIM AWARD 1996
(ODN C No. 32518 of 1992)
[Print N2108 [S1062]]
(C No. 36192 of 1997)
GROCERY PRODUCTS MANUFACTURE - MANUFACTURING
GROCERS AWARD 1996
(ODN C No. 01152 of 1985)
[Print P1412 [G0493]]
(C No. 36193 of 1997)
RUBBER, PLASTIC AND CABLE MAKING INDUSTRY - GENERAL -
AWARD 1996
(ODN C No. 01800 of 1982)
[Print N5077 [R0007]]
(C No. 36194 of 1997)
COMMERCIAL SALES (VICTORIA) AWARD 1996
(ODN C No. 31107 of 1993)
[Print N7268 [C0716]]
(C No. 36195 of 1997)
Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association
RETAIL AND WHOLESALE INDUSTRY - SHOP EMPLOYEES -
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY - AWARD 1996
(ODN C No. 30030 of 1993)
[Print N8285 [R0017]]
(C No. 36233 of 1997)
Transport Workers' Union of Australia
TRANSPORT WORKERS AWARD, 1983
(ODN C No. 01520 of 1982)
[Print F2076 [T0140]]
(C No. 36332 of 1997)
Australian Municipal, Administrative, Clerical and Services Union
CLERICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EMPLOYEES
(VICTORIAN) AWARD 1995
(ODN C No. 34749 of 1995)
[Print M8184 [C1128]]
(C No. 36714 of 1997)
VICTORIAN LOCAL AUTHORITIES INTERIM AWARD 1991
(ODN C No. 36277 of 1989)
[Print J9778 [V0076]]
(C No. 36715 of 1997)
Automotive, Food, Metals, Engineering, Printing
and Kindred Industries Union
THE VEHICLE INDUSTRY - REPAIR, SERVICES
AND RETAIL - AWARD 1983
(ODN C No. 01339 of 1974)
[Print H5658 [V0019]]
(C No. 36848 of 1997)
THE VEHICLE INDUSTRY AWARD 1982
(ODN C No. 01522 of 1979)
[Print F0813 [V0005]]
(C No. 36849 of 1997)
Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union
FOREST AND BUILDING PRODUCTS, MANUFACTURING
AND MERCHANDISING (GENERAL) AWARD 1996
(ODN C No. 00031 of 1950)
[Print P2917 [F0576]]
(C No. 50649 of 1997)
Various employees |
Various industries |
JUSTICE GIUDICE, PRESIDENT |
|
VICE PRESIDENT ROSS |
|
VICE PRESIDENT McINTYRE |
|
SENIOR DEPUTY PRESIDENT MACBEAN |
|
SENIOR DEPUTY PRESIDENT WATSON |
|
COMMISSIONER GAY |
|
COMMISSIONER CRIBB |
MELBOURNE, 29 APRIL 1998 |
REASONS FOR DECISION
This decision deals with the Living Wage claim by the Australian Council of Trade Unions (the ACTU). This claim as expressed in Exhibit ACTU 25 at 165 is as follows:
"The Living Wage claim before this Full Bench has two stages and two parts:
Stage 1 With effect from 22 April 1998
(1) Claim $20.60 Minimum Rates Adjustment for all minimum award rates, to achieve a Minimum Wage of $10.00 per hour ($380 per week) for ordinary hours, with commensurate increases for other classifications.
(2) Affirm all workers are entitled to a wage increase of not less than $20.00 per week (for ordinary hours) since 1 July 1996 or 3rd $8.00 SNA, whichever is the later.
Stage 2 With effect from 22 April 1999
(1) Claim $38.00/7.7% (whichever is greater) Minimum Rates Adjustment for all minimum award rates, to achieve a Minimum Wage of $11.00 per hour ($418.00 per week) for ordinary hours with commensurate increases for other classifications.
(2) Affirm all workers are entitled to a cumulative increase in wages of not less than $40.00 per week (for ordinary hours) since 1 July 1996 or 3rd $8.00 SNA, whichever is the later."
(SNA means safety net adjustment.)
We will refer to the four components of the claim as follows:
Stage 1, Part (1) - the $20.60 component.
Stage 1, Part (2) - the $20 component.
Stage 2, Part (1) - the $38/7.7% component.
Stage 2, Part (2) - the $40 component.
To give effect to the wage claim, applications under s.113 of the Workplace Relations Act 1996 (the Act) were, in 1997, made to vary the awards named in the heading.
This decision also deals with a claim by the ACTU that the Commission should discard its Statement of Principles (dealt with in Chapter 11).
CHAPTER 2 - THE APRIL 1997 DECISION
A year ago, the Commission in its Safety Net Review - Wages April 1997 decision (the April 1997 decision) [Print P1997] with respect to the ACTU's Living Wage claim then before it by majority decided, among other things:
1. to award an arbitrated safety net adjustment of $10 per week;
2. to determine a minimum wage (to be called "the federal minimum wage") for full-time adult employees of $359.40 per week and, for junior, part-time and casual employees, of a proportionate amount. (The federal minimum wage was inclusive of the arbitrated safety net adjustment determined by that decision and all previous safety net and national wage adjustments.);
3. to provide that increases under both 1. and 2. be fully absorbable against all above award payments;
4. to provide for the variation of both minimum rates and paid rates awards; and
5. to provide that any outstanding $8 per week arbitrated safety net adjustments available under specified earlier decisions be available from the same date as the $10 per week arbitrated safety net adjustment available pursuant to that decision.
Preliminary proceedings took place before the President on 10 November 1997. On 18 November 1997 the President issued a statement [Print P6759] about the future conduct of the case as follows:
"These applications were before the Commission on 10 November 1997. After hearing submissions on programming the Commission adjourned to confer with the other members of the Bench. The following procedure will apply to the conduct of the case:
1. The applicants are directed to file and serve on the parties and interveners an outline of their submissions on or before 3 December 1997.
2. The Commission will sit in Melbourne on 8 to 10 December 1997 inclusive to hear the applicants' opening submissions and such oral evidence as they wish to adduce. The Commission expects that the evidence in chief of each witness should be followed by any cross-examination.
3. Senior Deputy President MacBean will conduct a conference between the parties on 2 December 1997, at 10.00 am in Melbourne. It is desirable that each party or intervener wishing to bring forward matters for discussion at the conference files and serves on the other parties and interveners an outline of such matters by close of business on 24 November 1997.
The further programming of the applications will be considered at the conclusion of the December hearings."
A conference presided over by MacBean SDP took place on 2 December 1997. No agreement was reached at it.
The hearings took place in December 1997 and February/March 1998.
The summary which follows is intended to provide no more than a brief outline of the various responses to the wage claim. It does not summarise the arguments in support of the responses. Many of these arguments are dealt with in the parts of this decision to which they relate. We have taken all the submissions into account in arriving at our decision.
4.2.1 Employer Associations
Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) and National Farmers' Federation (NFF)
1. The claim should be rejected and no increase should be awarded.
2. If the Commission decides to award an increase, an option would be to make a modest safety net adjustment subject to the following criteria being satisfied:
· at least a year has elapsed since the application of the last safety net adjustment in the award;
· a commitment to absorption is given;
· a programme relating to award simplification has been established; and
· the federal minimum wage is included in the award, or phasing in commences.
3. If any increase is granted, it should be fully absorbable in any type of overaward payment.
Metal Trades Industry Association of Australia, Australian Chamber of Manufactures, Engineering Employers Association, South Australia and Master Plumbers' and Mechanical Services Association of Australia (Joint Employers)
1. The claim should be rejected.
2. A flat adjustment of $8 per week should be applied to all award rates of pay and to the federal minimum wage.
3. The adjustment is to be payable from a date not earlier than 12 months after the operative date of the third safety net adjustment pursuant to the Safety Net Adjustments and Review decision of 21 September 1994 [Print L5300] and Third Safety Net Adjustment & Section 150A Review decision of 9 October 1995 [Print M5600] confirmed in the April 1997 decision, i.e. not before 22 April 1998.
4. The adjustment should be fully absorbable in any type of overaward payment.
5. There should be a prima facie entitlement, subject to review by the Commission, to an additional adjustment of $8 per week with effect no earlier than 22 April 1999.
Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce, Motor Traders' Association of New South Wales, Motor Trade Association of South Australia and Tasmanian Automobile Chamber of Commerce (Retail Motor Industry)
The claim should be rejected and no increase should be awarded.
The Australian Catholic Commission for Industrial Relations (ACCIR)
The quantum of any increase should be determined by the Commission within specified criteria.
National Meat Association of Australia (NMA)
In any federal meat processing award which provides for an incentive payments system, any wage increase should not be taken into account in calculating the incentive.
4.2.2 Governments
Commonwealth, State of Queensland, State of South Australia, State of Tasmania, State of Victoria, State of Western Australia, Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory (Joint Governments)
1. The claim should be rejected.
2. There should be an annual $8 per week safety net adjustment in each of the next two years with a cut-off point in the tradesperson's rate in the Metal Industry Award 1984 - Part I.
3. The increase should be fully absorbable in any type of overaward payment.
4. The first $8 per week safety net increase should be available no earlier than before 22 April 1998 and a minimum of 12 months after the award was varied for the $10 per week increase under the April 1997 decision. There should be a minimum of 12 months between receiving the first and second $8 per week safety net increase.
5. The $8 per week increases should also apply to the federal minimum wage for the next two years.
State of New South Wales (New South Wales)
Stage 1 of the claim should be granted.
4.2.3 Others
Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS)
The federal minimum wage, at least, and preferably all award minima, should be increased broadly in line with movements in average ordinary time earnings since the implementation of the safety net wage increases arising from the April 1997 decision.
Brotherhood of St Laurence (Brotherhood)
An increase should be awarded sufficient to improve the real earnings of the low paid workers in a substantial way.
The Workplace Relations and Other Legislation Amendment Act 1996 (the WROLA Act) resulted in a number of changes to the statutory framework within which the Commission operates. The main legislative changes of relevance to the determination of the claims before the Commission are set out in the April 1997 decision.
Section 88B is central to our determination of the ACTU's wage claim. Section 88B(1) directs us to perform our functions under Part VI in a way that furthers the objects of the Act and, in particular, the objects of Part VI. Section 88B(2) provides:
"(2) In performing its functions under this Part, the Commission must ensure that a safety net of fair minimum wages and conditions of employment is established and maintained, having regard to the following:
(a) the need to provide fair minimum standards for employees in the context of living standards generally prevailing in the Australian community;
(b) economic factors, including levels of productivity and inflation, and the desirability of attaining a high level of employment;
(c) when adjusting the safety net, the needs of the low paid."
The objects of Part VI are set out in s.88A in the following terms:
"The objects of this Part are to ensure that:
(a) wages and conditions of employment are protected by a system of enforceable awards established and maintained by the Commission; and
(b) awards act as a safety net of fair minimum wages and conditions of employment; and
(c) awards are simplified and suited to the efficient performance of work according to the needs of particular workplaces or enterprises; and
(d) the Commission's functions and powers in relation to making and varying awards are performed and exercised in a way that encourages the making of agreements between employers and employees at the workplace or enterprise level."
Other relevant provisions of the Act are sections 3, 90 and 90A.
Section 3 provides that the principal object of the Act is "to provide a framework for cooperative workplace relations which promotes the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia" and sets out various means for its achievement, including by:
"(a) encouraging the pursuit of high employment, improved living standards, low inflation and international competitiveness through higher productivity and a flexible and fair labour market; and
(b) ensuring that the primary responsibility for determining matters affecting the relationship between employers and employees rests with the employer and employees at the workplace or enterprise level; and . . .
(d) providing the means:
(i) for wages and conditions of employment to be determined as far as possible by the agreement of employers and employees at the workplace or enterprise level, upon a foundation of minimum standards; and
(ii) to ensure the maintenance of an effective award safety net of fair and enforceable minimum wages and conditions of employment . . ."
Section 90 requires the Commission to take into account the public interest, and for that purpose to have regard to:
· the objects of the Act and in particular the objects of Part VI; and
· the state of the national economy and the likely effects on the national economy of any award or order that the Commission is considering, or is proposing to make, with special reference to likely effects on the level of employment and on inflation.
Section 90A states:
"In making a National Wage Case decision, the Commission must have regard to the operation of:
(a) the Superannuation Guarantee Charge Act 1992; and
(b) the Superannuation Guarantee (Administration) Act 1992."
The factors relevant to the adjustment of the award safety net can be grouped into three categories:
· economic - the likely effects of any adjustment on the state of the economy with particular reference to the impact on employment, productivity and inflation;
· social - the need to provide fair minimum standards for employees in the context of living standards generally prevailing in the Australian community with particular reference to the needs of the low paid; and
· bargaining - encouraging the making of agreements between employers and employees at the workplace or enterprise level by maintaining an incentive to bargain.
There is no particular priority to be assigned to these factors. The Commission is required to have regard to each of them.
The parties' submissions on the ACTU wage claim provided:
· a medium-term assessment of Australia's recent economic performance;
· an overview of recent economic indicators; and
· perspectives on the immediate economic outlook.
There was, in the submissions, a broad view that economic conditions, as a whole, are favourable with reasonable low inflationary growth being experienced and an absence of major economic imbalances. The outlook was generally seen to be positive, subject to uncertainty and potential adverse effects from the financial instability besetting many Asian economies. The views of the parties and interveners were divided, however, on the likely effect of the ACTU wage claim on the economy, the appropriate response to the claim having regard to economic considerations and the degree of caution to be exercised as a result of the Asian developments.
Given the broad level of agreement of the parties in relation to recent economic trends and the immediate economic outlook, it is not necessary to provide a detailed assessment of the relevant material in the body of this decision. A deeper analysis of the economic evidence is in Attachment B.
From that assessment, we conclude:
1. The Australian economy has performed relatively strongly since the early 1990s with:
· relatively strong economic growth;
· low inflation;
· high productivity growth;
· strong business investment;
· a gradual reduction in unemployment (albeit with continuing unacceptably high levels);
· stability in Australia's external balance (albeit with a continuing deficit); and
· an absence of major economic imbalances.
2. Australia's economic performance over the past year has continued to reflect that good medium term performance, with:
· low inflation and stable levels of wages growth;
· strong growth in output;
· strong employment growth, particularly in late 1997 and into 1998, with a continuing reduction in unemployment; and
· high levels of growth in business investment.
The immediate economic outlook is for continuing strong domestic demand, but a weakening of the external impetus for Australian economic growth, partly because of recent developments in Asia. In 1997-98:
· economic growth is expected to strengthen;
· wages growth is expected to moderate slightly;
· underlying inflation should remain low, notwithstanding an expected level of 1 3/4% by the June quarter 1998; and
· the current account deficit is expected to grow, reflecting abnormal influences in 1996-97.
Looked at as a whole, the economic material before us demonstrates generally favourable recent economic performance and a positive immediate outlook.
These generally favourable economic circumstances are reflected in developments since the April 1997 decision:
· inflation has fallen from 1.5% in the December quarter 1996 to -0.2% in the December quarter 1997 (or from 2.1% to 1.4% on the ABS measure of underlying inflation);
· trend economic growth has increased from 2.5% in the year to the December quarter 1996 to 3.7% to the December quarter 1997;
· employment growth strengthened in the last half of 1997, with unemployment falling from 8.6% in December 1996 to 8.1% in January 1998; and
· growth in wages, measured by Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE) remained steady, with trend growth in the year to November 1997 of 3.9%. Official data on bargaining outcomes reflects some moderation of bargaining increases from annual growth of 4.4% in the December quarter 1996 to 4.1% in the year to the December quarter 1997.
The favourable recent economic performance and immediate outlook must, however, be considered in the context of the uncertainty associated with recent developments in East Asia.
Various submissions were made about the implications of the East Asian financial instability on the claim before us. The Joint Governments and employer parties urged a cautious approach. For example, ACCI submitted:
"The Commission must take an even more cautious approach to wage fixation than it normally would because of the problems now occurring in Asia. To increase award wages would be utterly inappropriate at a time when jobs are already being put into jeopardy because of the fall in export sales to Asia" [Exhibit ACCI 5 at 34].
The Joint Employers submitted that the East Asian economic developments brought risks of inflationary pressures and deterioration in the current account and domestic activity. They drew special attention to the differential effect between firms and industries depending on their exposure to East Asia, relying on survey material in relation to their members.
General Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, however, shows a more positive outlook. A press release of the Federal Treasurer in relation to Private New Capital Expenditure, released on 26 February 1998 [Exhibit JG 6], suggested a continuing healthy outlook for investment. The Treasurer stated:
"The figures suggest that businesses across a wide range of sectors remain positive about the outlook for economic growth notwithstanding developments in Asia.
The first estimate of expected capital investment in 1998-99 showed a 19.3 percent increase over the equivalent estimate for 1997-98, particularly for equipment investment expectations, which rose 28.2 percent over the equivalent estimate for 1997-98. All industries expect very strong growth in investments in 1998-99 over 1997-98 levels."
The Joint Governments' submissions and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Treasury publications [Exhibit ACTU 1 at tab 7 and Exhibit ACTU 27 at tab 21] were equivocal about the effect of Asian developments. The following potential impacts were identified:
· a fall in Australia's exchange rate (other than against the East Asian economies) with implications for inflation, export values and competitiveness;
· a fall in Australia's share market;
· an effect on Australia's bond market, initially positive, reflecting a "flight to quality";
· an adverse effect on Australia's export volume growth;
· weakness in commodity prices;
· import pressures as a result of East Asian currency depreciations; and
· possible loss of business and consumer confidence.
The Treasury mid-term forecast incorporated a substantial detraction from Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), concentrated in 1998-99.
RBA and Treasury assessments concluded that Australia is relatively well placed to deal with adverse effects resulting from the East Asian situation. This is due to the favourable effect of current fiscal and monetary policy settings, the underlying strength of the Australian economy and the financial controls in Australia which would prevent the type of financial instability which lay at the root of the East Asian problem manifesting itself in the Australian financial sector.
The ACTU recognised the necessity to focus on the regional developments, but submitted that these developments did not impede the granting of its claim because the origin of the Asian crisis was related to domestic financial sector weaknesses which are not present in Australia. Australia's economic fundamentals are strong and, if the claim is granted, there will be a beneficial effect on domestic demand.
The material before us about Asian developments suggests that:
· there will be some adverse effect on Australian net exports and economic activity, although the extent of the impact is unclear and will reflect counter-balancing considerations (of price and volume effects);
· the weaker international demand is likely to result in a reduction in growth, when compared to growth which might have been expected;
· any impact on activity will be concentrated in 1998-99;
· some $A depreciation has occurred already and there is heightened exchange rate uncertainty;
· the Australian financial system is not at risk of the problems experienced in East Asian systems; and
· whatever aggregate economic effect arises, there will be differential effects between and within sectors of the economy.
On balance, we accept that there will be adverse effects on Australia's trade balance and economic growth and that a degree of caution is required. Nevertheless the Australian economy is better placed now than for some considerable time to deal with any effects arising out of East Asia.
6.2 The Economic Effects of a Safety Net Adjustment
We were confronted with differing perspectives of the economic impact (and other impacts) of a decision in relation to safety net adjustments. Whilst the submissions of the parties, to a substantial degree, repeated submissions put to the April 1997 Full Bench, we must consider all of the submissions and reach our own conclusions having regard to our statutory responsibilities.
The submissions focussed on the effect of an increase in safety net award wages on the economy generally, with specific attention to employment, inflation and productivity.
Our consideration of the economic effects of the claim has two broad dimensions:
· macro-economic - the effects in aggregate terms on wages growth, inflation, employment and productivity; and
· micro-economic - the effects at the sectoral or enterprise level, recognising that the application of safety net adjustments will vary, reflecting the different incidence of enterprise bargaining and overaward payments between and within sectors of the economy and the impact of wage increases on employment levels of employees benefiting from safety net adjustments.
The macro-economic effects of any safety net adjustment will vary depending on the amount, any conditions attaching to it and the general economic context. We note that the $10 safety net adjustment awarded in the April 1997 decision has not resulted in adverse economic consequences. Since the increase was awarded, economic activity has remained buoyant, aggregate wages growth has moderated, inflation has fallen further and employment growth has been strong, particularly in the second half of 1997 and into 1998.
In examining the submissions put to us in relation to the likely economic effects of the ACTU claim, we first address the submissions relating to the cost of the claim. Such an assessment is necessary to gauge the likely macro-economic effects of any safety net adjustment.
Having reached conclusions as to the likely aggregate costs of the ACTU claim, we will then consider the effect of wage increases on employment, wages, prices and productivity and sectoral effects.
6.3 Direct Costs of a Safety Net Adjustment
The likely aggregate cost of a safety net adjustment involves two elements; direct costs and indirect costs, each of which we will examine in turn.
We were provided with three broad cost estimates of safety net adjustments:
· an ACTU estimate of the cost of its claim;
· Joint Governments' estimates of the cost of the ACTU claim and the Joint Governments' proposal for an $8 safety net adjustment to apply at and below the Metal Industry Award C10 (trades) classification. At our request, they also provided estimates of the cost of a range of safety net increases, both on the basis of the ACTU claim and the Joint Governments' cut off approach; and
· an estimate by ACCI of the cost of the ACTU claim based on a November 1996 survey of its constituent associations' members of the anticipated effect of the ACTU's claim in the April 1997 review case.
The retail motor industry provided estimates of the cost of the ACTU claim on typical enterprises within the motor industry, although these estimates did not address the aggregate cost of the ACTU claim.
There is no clear and direct method of calculating the aggregate cost of any safety net adjustment. Each estimate put before us is differently based and involves various assumptions.
It is necessary therefore to consider the competing cost estimates advanced and the basis from which they were derived. Ultimately, given the absence of a direct cost measure, a degree of judgment is required.
6.3.1 The ACTU Costing
The ACTU provided an economy-wide aggregate cost estimate of the impact of each component of its claim.
In estimating the aggregate cost of the $20.60 and $38/7.7% components, the ACTU utilised the same method employed by it in providing cost estimates in the April 1997 case. The method, and the criticism of it by other parties, is contained in Attachment F to the April 1997 majority decision.
On that basis the ACTU provided the following estimates of aggregate additions to AWOTE resulting from the granting of the $20.60 and $38/7.7% components of its claim.
Percentage increase in AWOTE, resulting from the
$20.60 and $38/7.7% components of the ACTU claim
Low |
High | |||||
Males |
Females |
Persons |
Males |
Females |
Persons | |
$20.60 |
0.14 |
0.24 |
0.17 |
0.34 |
0.86 |
0.52 |
$38.00/7.7% |
0.38 |
0.83 |
0.52 |
0.79 |
1.86 |
1.18 |
[Exhibit ACTU 2 at 28, transcript 241]
With respect to the $20 component the ACTU submitted:
"In our judgement and recognising the time delays involved in bringing any safety net increase claims to the Commission and having them determined, as well as the spread of the workforce likely to gain from such an entitlement, the $20 safety net increase is unlikely to have significant economy-wide cost impact. An allowance of 0.1% per year implies that this Commission would, on a case by case basis in a full year, grant increases of $20 per week for 250,000 workers who had received no wage increase since mid-1996 on the last $8 SNA; but making such an allowance with respect to the overall cost impact leaves the overall cost of the claim modest and affordable." [Exhibit ACTU 2 at 28]
The costing of the $20.60 and $38/7.7% components of the claim was based on ABS data collected in May 1996, adjusted by AWOTE growth since that time, and assumed a pro rata cost for part-time and casual employees. In response to questioning by the Commission, the ACTU provided cost estimates of the $20.60 component based on May 1996 data adjusted by safety net increases since that time, and further adjusted to reflect data as to the actual incidence of overaward payments amongst part-time and casual employees.
The cost estimate based on the May 1996 data adjusted for safety net increases of $18 is as follows:
Percentage increase in AWOTE, resulting from the
$20.60 component of the ACTU claim
Low |
High | |||||
Males |
Females |
Persons |
Males |
Females |
Persons | |
$20.60 |
0.14 |
0.31 |
0.21 |
0.41 |
1.07 |
0.64 |
[Exhibit ACTU 25 at 73]
When further adjusted for the incidence of overaward payments among casual and part-time employees the cost of the $20.60 component of the claim for persons is 0.21% (low) and 0.64% (high). [Exhibit ACTU 25 at 78, Exhibit ACTU 26 at tab 13]
The Joint Governments submitted that the ACTU was in error in adjusting ABS Survey of Employees Earnings and Hours (EEH) data to incorporate the self-employed within their total cost estimate. The ACTU further adjusted its cost estimates to remove this effect. The final ACTU estimate of the cost of the $20.60 component was an addition to AWOTE of 0.25% (low) and 0.74% (high). [Transcript at 588]
6.3.2 The Joint Governments' Costing
The Joint Governments provided estimates of the aggregate cost impact of:
1. their proposal of an $8 increase in award rates, subject to absorption and with a cut off at the C10 (trades) classification level in the Metal Industry Award ($451.20);
2. the ACTU claim; and
3. at our request, a range of wage increases on both the approach as proposed by the Joint Governments and the ACTU.
The Joint Governments employed two different methods of calculating costs. They first provided costings on the same basis as those put in the April 1997 case. This method involved the use of the 1995 Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey (AWIRS) data on the application of $8 safety net adjustments in the twelve months to late 1995, adjusted for those employees in receipt of overaward payments who would not obtain access to the $20.60 on the basis proposed by either the ACTU or the Joint Governments. The method is set out in Attachment F to the majority decision in that case.
The second method employed to calculate the cost used AWIRS 95 data showing the number of employees receiving exactly the award rate of pay. The methodology is explained in Appendix C of Exhibit JG 5 as follows:
"To generate an estimate of the ACTU's claim using data on the dominant payment system at each workplace we weighted data on the proportion of private sector employees who are paid exactly the award rate with data on the proportion of employees in the public sector at workplaces with 20 or more employees who received an SNA in the 12 months to late 1995 (we excluded any public sector employees who received an SNA who were also in receipt of overaward payments). Before weighting the estimates, we obtained an estimate of the proportion of all employees in the private sector who are paid exactly the award rate. AWIRS 95 data suggests that 29 per cent of all private sector employees in workplaces with 20 or more employees are paid the award rate.Assuming that private sector employees at workplaces with less that 20 employees have the same level of award coverage as employees at workplaces with 20-99 employees (36 per cent), suggests that around 32 per cent of all private sector employees are paid the award rate.
To cost the $20.60 component of the claim we assumed that employees who are paid the award rate would receive a $20.60 increase. Thus 30 per cent of all employees and 32 per cent of all private sector employees would receive a $20.60 increase. We have not made any allowance for employees on overaward payments receiving a partial increase under the $20.60 component of the ACTU claim."
The two methods are referred to as the Safety Net Increase (SNI) and Award methods respectively. The SNI estimates were the lower of the two estimates provided. The Joint Governments submitted:
"The advantage of using both approaches to cost the ACTU's claim is that it allows us to present a range with a high degree of confidence that the actual result will be somewhere in between. However, to ensure that there can be no suggestion that we have inflated the estimates, for the purposes of the modelling exercise which we detail in the next chapter of this submission, we take the conservative approach of adopting the bottom of the range as the indicator of the direct wage cost impact of the claim." [Exhibit JG 1 at 113]
6.3.2(a) The Joint Governments' Proposal
The Joint Governments provided a costing of their proposal on the SNI method only. It resulted in a direct aggregate cost of 0.07% of AWOTE.
6.3.2(b) The ACTU Claim
The Joint Governments' costing of the $20.60 component of the ACTU claim was as follows:
SNI method |
Award method | |||
$20.60 |
Total including the $20 component |
$20.60 |
Total including the $20 component | |
Private sector |
0.69 |
0.79 |
0.95 |
1.05 |
Total |
0.65 |
0.75 |
0.84 |
0.94 |
[Table 7.3, Exhibit JG 1]
The Joint Governments did not themselves cost the $20 component of the ACTU claim. They submitted that in the absence of reliable data they had conservatively adopted the 0.1% addition to total wages costs suggested by the ACTU.
No cost estimate of the $38/7.7% component was provided.
At our request, the Joint Governments provided cost estimates of various safety net increases as set out below.
Direct Aggregate Wage Effect of Various Safety Net Adjustments -
All Employees
Threshold |
Wage effect by quantum (percentage increase in AWOTE) | ||||
$6 |
$8 |
$10 |
$12 |
$15 | |
Based on award coverage | |||||
No cut off |
0.24 |
0.33 |
0.41 |
0.49 |
0.61 |
C10 cut off |
0.06 |
0.08 |
0.10 |
0.12 |
0.15 |
Based on SNI flow | |||||
No cut off |
0.19 |
0.25 |
0.31 |
0.38 |
0.47 |
C10 cut off |
0.05 |
0.07 |
0.09 |
0.11 |
0.13 |
Direct Aggregate Wage Effect of Various Safety Net Adjustments -
Private Sector Employees
Threshold |
Wage effect by quantum (percentage increase in private sector AWOTE) | ||||
$6 |
$8 |
$10 |
$12 |
$15 | |
Based on award coverage | |||||
No cut off |
0.28 |
0.37 |
0.46 |
0.56 |
0.69 |
C10 cut off |
0.10 |
0.13 |
0.16 |
0.20 |
0.25 |
Based on SNI flow | |||||
No cut off |
0.20 |
0.27 |
0.33 |
0.40 |
0.50 |
C10 cut off |
0.07 |
0.09 |
0.12 |
0.14 |
0.18 |
[Joint Governments' written responses to questions; 13 March 1998, Attachment D]
The Joint Governments provided linear estimates of the cost of various safety net increases, but noted that actual costs would be non-linear, increasing disproportionately with higher safety net increases. We accept this, but are of the view that, given the indicative nature of the estimates, the impact of non-linearity would not significantly affect the broad picture shown in the estimates.
6.3.3 The ACCI Costing
ACCI provided estimates of the cost of the ACTU claim based on data obtained from a survey of its members conducted in late 1996 (the same survey relied on by ACCI in the April 1997 case). The method used by ACCI is discussed in Attachment F to the April 1997 decision. ACCI relied on the same survey material and method in this case, with adjustment of the data to reflect the effect of the $10 safety net adjustment awarded in April 1997.
The ACCI survey in late 1996 involved data from 962 companies, employing 211,622 employees. The data purported to show the level of overaward payments made at the time of the survey. By weighting the level of safety net adjustment payable, shown by bands of actual overaward payments, and assuming full absorption, ACCI derived a weighted average increase in wages for full-time employees of the respondent companies of 2.5%.
In addition ACCI provided sectoral data showing weighted average annual increases for full-time employees of 0.3% in mining, 0.5% in manufacturing, 1.3% in construction, 4.1% in retail and wholesale trade and 2.3% in the services sector. Comparable estimates in respect to part-time and casual employees in each sector were higher than the weighted average increase.
The survey material does not provide information necessary to assess the statistical reliability or representativeness of its results. The survey results are presented without:
· any information as to the response rate;
· any information upon which non-respondency bias could be assessed. The potential for non-respondency bias arises because employers who would be required to pay safety net increases (those paying award rates only) have a greater incentive to respond than employers who would not; and
· a statistical basis for assessing the representativeness of the ACCI survey respondents. The ACCI survey material does not appear to coincide with ABS or AWIRS data.
These deficiencies lead us to treat the survey results with some caution.
ACCI appears not to rely on its costing as a measure of the aggregate cost effect of the ACTU claim. While the 2.5% average increase does not measure the aggregate wages cost of the ACTU claim, it may nevertheless demonstrate the effect on average across its survey respondents. Although there is doubt about the specific results shown by the survey, due to its general deficiencies, they reinforce the fact that safety net adjustments impose differential costs between sectors and firms. That is a perspective which the Joint Employers and the Joint Governments highlighted in their submissions.
Notwithstanding the need to consider this perspective of the ACTU claim, cost estimates showing economy-wide wages growth are necessary in considering the macro-economic effects of the claim.
6.3.4 Conclusion
Both the Joint Governments' and ACTU estimates are based on generally accepted survey data (from AWIRS 95 and the ABS). Nonetheless, there remains in each case a gap between the base data and the final cost estimates in each case. The gap is filled by assumptions.
The ACTU compares actual earnings of groups of private sector employees (narrowly banded by earnings) with a range of award rates which would result from the granting of its claim. A range of award rates is used because of the absence of data on award rates and actual earnings for each group. Further assumptions are necessary to convert the data for the segment of the private sector workforce reflected in the ABS EEH data to the broader workforce group reflected in AWOTE data.
The ACTU cost estimate is not a direct one but a general indicator of the likely costs. The method used by the ACTU has deficiencies.
The "low" estimates assume employees within each occupational group are subject to the lowest award rate for that group (e.g. that all labourers are employed at C14). Some employees would be subject to a higher award rate. To the extent that they are, the ACTU "low" estimates will understate the cost impact of its claim.
In the "high" estimates, the ACTU compares actual wages with the highest applicable award rate for each occupational group. Whilst some employees may receive a higher award rate, others would be subject to a lower award rate. The ACTU suggests that the real cost will lie somewhere in between its "low" and "high" estimates.
Further, the ACTU estimates assumed no or negligible application of its claim to public sector and managerial employees when converting the EEH data to reflect the scope of the AWOTE data. Such an assumption results in understatement of the ACTU cost estimates.
It appears to us that the ACTU's "high" estimate is a better guide to the aggregate cost of its claim than its "low" estimate.
The Joint Governments' estimates involve assumptions tending to both overstate and understate their estimates. Overstatement occurs because the use of 1995 data without adjusting it to reflect the continuing spread of enterprise bargaining (which would reduce the proportion of the workforce eligible to receive safety net payments, unless the growth in bargaining occurred almost exclusively in areas of existing overaward payments). On the Joint Governments' data, the number of employees covered by federal agreements has grown from 1.56 million in September 1995 to 1.94 million in September 1997, an increase of 24.4%.
Understatement results from the Joint Governments limiting the estimates of employees affected by the ACTU claim to those who would receive the full benefit of the claim. Employees who would receive partial access to a safety net adjustment are not included in their cost estimates.
We think that the various "biases" in the Joint Governments' estimate, particularly the failure to adjust the 1995 data for the continuing spread of enterprise bargaining, have an overall tendency to overstatement. We think that greater reliance can be placed on the lower end of the cost range suggested by the Joint Governments i.e. that derived by the SNI method.
Whilst there is no definitive cost estimate of the ACTU claim before us, we are satisfied that assistance is obtained by considering the ACTU estimates at the higher end and the Joint Governments' estimates at the lower end. Applying some caution we think that we should rely on an estimate around the upper end of the ACTU estimates and the lower end of Joint Governments' estimates. The estimates overlap.
Adopting this approach, the aggregate direct cost of the $20.60 component is around 0.65% to 0.74% of AWOTE.
It should be noted that existing AWOTE data incorporates a component arising from the April 1997 safety net adjustment, generating whatever employment, inflation and productivity effect arises from that component. The cost impact of any safety net adjustment should be considered in that context. Any addition to AWOTE, and whatever economic effects flowed from it arising from the ACTU claim, would be limited to additional cost impact, with the $20.60 component replacing the $10 SNA in 1997.
The implementation of safety net adjustments has been staggered. Chart 2.1 in Exhibit JG 1 shows that, notwithstanding some concentration of the April 1997 increase in May and June 1997, awards were varied to give effect to that decision over 1997 (and possibly into 1998). A similar staggering of any future safety net increases can be expected. This would suggest a less dramatic effect on award rates of pay and hence earnings than would arise from award increases applied from a common date.
6.4 Indirect Costs of the ACTU Claim
A number of parties addressed potential indirect costs of the ACTU claim. In summary, such costs could arise because:
1. An increase will flow to some employees covered by enterprise agreements because:
(a) the terms of the agreements may require or permit safety net adjustments to be passed on; and
(b) negotiations leading to future agreements may be influenced by safety net award increases.
2. Absorption may not occur due to:
(a) employers electing to maintain overaward payments to maintain relativities; and
(b) employees (and/or unions) insisting on the maintenance of overaward relativities.
3. Higher inflation resulting from granting the ACTU claim may lead to further wage increases; and
4. Decisions about the level of remuneration of employees not subject to formal agreements or awards may be influenced by the level of award rates.
It is regrettable that, despite a large number of Commission decisions which have required the absorption of award increases into overaward payments (e.g. minimum rates adjustments and safety net adjustments) there is very little information about the degree of absorption in these cases. No evidence was produced tending to the conclusion that absorption had not occurred.
Notwithstanding these observations, we examine each of these potential indirect effects. The ACTU acknowledged the theoretical possibility of indirect costs arising but argued that, in practice, such costs were non-existent or negligible.
6.4.1 Flow-on to Enterprise Agreements
Flow-on to enterprise agreements, it was said, could arise in two ways: first, as a result of the terms of existing agreements and second, by increasing wage outcomes in future agreements.
6.4.1(a) Flow-on as a Result of the Terms of Existing Agreements
The ACTU submitted that no evidence of such an effect was substantiated by an analysis of existing agreements. It further submitted that the evidence of senior union officials (Mr P. Tighe, National Secretary, Communications, Electrical, Electronic, Energy, Information, Postal, Plumbing and Allied Services Union of Australia (CEPU), Mr G. Sword, General Secretary, National Union of Workers (NUW), and Mr D. Cameron, National Secretary, Automotive, Food, Metals, Engineering, Printing and Kindred Industries Union (AMWU)) showed that agreements negotiated on behalf of their members did not provide for increases in wage rates as a result of safety net adjustments.
The Joint Governments and ACCI submitted that the evidence of the union officials related only to agreements to which their unions were parties and that those agreements were not representative of agreements generally.
ACCI undertook an analysis of 172 agreements certified by the Commission in October 1997.
From this analysis ACCI submitted that 31.4% of agreements contained wage rates based on the award as a floor, whilst 43% were unclear as to the base. It further submitted that 11.1% of the agreements were open agreements and 39.9% were ambiguous as to the effect of National Wage Case decisions on bargaining.
ACCI also relied on its late 1996 survey of members in which 46.9% of respondents expected that directly or indirectly, the 8.75% safety net adjustment sought at the time would flow to employees covered by enterprise agreements.
The ACCI analysis of agreements certified in October 1997 indicates that some flow would occur. Any flow would be less than suggested by the ACCI analysis because:
1. ACCI excluded from its analysis agreements in the public sector, the building and construction industry and the metal industry. These sectors generally reflect advanced bargaining, in the sense that the parties are often entering their third or fourth agreement and the proximity of agreement rates to award rates is likely to be different in respect of first agreements and consistent with the evidence of the union officials. This is an important qualification. Advice from the Industrial Registrar is that over 400 agreements were certified by the Commission in October 1997. The ACCI analysis utilised fewer than 50% of these agreements. The nature of the sectors excluded suggests a significant skewing of results.
2. Whilst the ACCI membership survey of late 1996 suggests an expectation of flow-on of safety net adjustments to bargaining it provides no evidence as to the actual flow-on (for example, arising from the April 1997 safety net adjustment).
3. The Joint Governments' assessment of no extra claims commitments in agreements operating as at 30 September 1997 suggests that only 1% of such agreements (covering 3% of employees) provide for an automatic passing on of National Wage Case increases.
4. The types of clauses identified by ACCI as allowing the flow-on of safety net adjustments to agreement rates would not in general have that effect. Such clauses commonly exclude further claims, except where consistent with a National Wage Case decision. This would exclude the flow-on of safety net adjustments which are subject to absorption. Further, even where a claim is possible, this does not mean that additional wage increases would be agreed.
5. It is likely that some flow-on of safety net adjustments to employees covered by existing enterprise agreements will occur, but will be limited. This conclusion is supported by the evidence of union witnesses. Whilst not representative of all unions with lesser membership and a lesser spread of bargaining within their sector, in most union bargained agreements, agreement rates would have little proximity to award rates.
6.4.1(b) Flow-on to Future Bargaining Outcomes
Safety net adjustments might affect the level of bargaining at the margin, where agreed wage rates are close to award rates, but would be less likely in relation to third and fourth generation agreements where agreed wage rates are not close to award rates.
We, in general, accept the evidence that where bargaining is well developed, award rates are not a consideration in the bargaining process. However, we accept that there is a dispersion of wages outcomes from bargaining with a small proportion of agreements providing small wage increases (see Exhibit JG 1 at 141). Safety net increases would, we think, impact on bargaining outcomes in respect to such agreements with the potential impact being greater the higher the level of safety net increases.
6.4.2 Absorption
It was submitted that the maintenance of wage relativities because of union/employee pressure or employer action would result in indirect costs if the ACTU claim were granted.
We have no evidence of union/employee pressure for the maintenance of relativities other than that reflected in the expectations of respondents to the ACCI survey of members in late 1996. There is no evidence, either in respect of individual employers or generally, that previous union commitments to absorption have not been met. No dispute notifications alleging a breach of absorption commitments were brought to our attention. There is no basis to conclude that union commitments about absorption would not be honoured in the future.
There was no material before us to support the contention that indirect costs would result from the maintenance of relativities at the initiative of employers.
6.4.3 Higher Inflation
We accept that, to the extent that inflation is a factor in wage bargaining, any increase in inflation resulting from safety net adjustments may affect the level of future bargaining increases. The effect of a moderate safety net increase on inflation would, however, be minimal, because of the limited impact of such an increase on aggregate wages growth and a lesser impact on inflation because wages costs form only part of total costs.
6.4.4 Effect on the Remuneration of Employees Not Subject
to Either Formal Agreements or Awards
There is no material before us to show that award rates have any relevance to salaries negotiated for executive/managerial employees. In relation to other award free employees, the indirect effects of a safety net increase would, we think, be limited.
6.4.5 Conclusion
On the evidence before us we conclude that the indirect costs of a moderate safety net adjustment would be limited.
6.5 The Likely Effects of a Safety Net Adjustment
on Aggregate Wages Growth
In assessing the impact of any safety net increase on AWOTE growth consideration must be given to the fact that the current levels of AWOTE growth (3.7% or 3.9% trend in the year to the December quarter 1997) incorporate the effect of the April 1997 $10 safety net increase. It follows that the economic effects of the April 1997 increase are already acting upon the economy and are reflected in inflation and employment outcomes since April 1997. Accordingly, the granting of a similar increase now would not materially alter AWOTE growth or its economic effects. There is no dispute that if we grant no increase future AWOTE growth would be lower to the extent of the $10 safety net adjustment of April 1997 once that adjustment has ceased to affect AWOTE growth.
Section 90A requires us to have regard to the operation of the Superannuation Guarantee Charge Act 1992 and the Superannuation Guarantee (Administration) Act 1992. Any increase in average earnings arising from a safety net increase now will occur at around the same time that superannuation guarantee contributions will increase by one percentage point (to 7%) (1 July 1998). The Joint Governments estimated that this increase will add about 0.4% to the national accounts measure of average earnings in 1998-99.
6.6 The Likely Effects of a Safety Net Adjustment on Inflation
The economic effect of any safety net increase will depend upon a number of factors including any monetary and fiscal policy response and the effect of any productivity improvements made by employers in an attempt to offset the cost of the increase. The Joint Governments estimated that the ACTU claim would add 0.65% to AWOTE growth on its SNI method. Assuming no change in other factors, an aggregate addition to wages costs in the order of 0.65% would result in an increase in inflation of about 0.4%, reflecting the wages share of input costs of around 60%.
6.7 The Likely Effects of a Safety Net Increase
on the Level of Employment
The Act requires us to consider the likely effects of any safety net adjustment on the level of employment. There was a diversity of view as to the likely economic effects of granting the ACTU claims. Two aspects were dealt with in the submissions:
1. the macro-economic effects, comprised of the effect of a higher general level of real wages on economic activity and employment and the effect of fiscal and monetary policy responses to safety net increases directed to maintaining the wages growth and inflation objectives; and
2. the micro-economic effects; the extent to which wage increases which impose or accentuate a pattern of wage relativities different from that which would emerge from the market will cause structural unemployment.
The submissions put to us in respect to the employment effects of a safety net increase are reviewed in Attachment B.
6.7.1 Macro-Economic Effects
The review in Attachment B shows that there is an issue as to the effect of changes in real wages on the level of economic activity and employment. Whilst there is no automatic relationship between the two, we accept that excessive real wages growth will detrimentally affect employment growth. Real wage growth will have a tendency to adversely affect aggregate employment growth, but the extent of such affect will depend upon the prevailing economic circumstances and the extent of the real wage movement.
A moderate safety net adjustment will have a limited impact on AWOTE growth (and a smaller effect on real wages, to the extent that the wages growth affects inflation) and a minimal effect on employment growth. Such an adjustment would not disturb the recent pattern of strong employment growth, which has been associated with consequent reductions in unemployment.
The second macro-economic effect concerns the effect of a possible policy reaction to a safety net adjustment through fiscal and monetary policy. This effect was raised most directly in relation to monetary policy but has relevance in relation to fiscal policy. It was submitted that the RBA might tighten monetary policy settings in response to a safety net increase which threatened the achievement of aggregate wages growth and inflation objectives.
Debate occurred in the current proceedings about the effect of a safety net increase on the RBA objective to keep AWOTE growth at 4.5% per year or below and inflation within the range of 2-3%.
ACCI focussed on the likely impact of RBA intervention in the face of the wage pressures which, it argued, would result from the granting of the ACTU claim. It submitted:
"To grant the ACTU claim would invite Reserve Bank intervention. What we are thus looking at is the potential for two forces to be moving in opposite directions: an adjustment in wages which would create inflationary pressures moving in one direction while in the other direction an increase in interest rates whose aim would be to maintain inflation within the target range." [Exhibit ACCI 5 at 41]
In giving effect to our obligations under the Act, we have had regard to the RBA wages and inflation objectives. We are not constrained by these objectives other than to have regard to them in the context of our statutory obligations, particularly under s.88B(2) and s.90.
We do not adopt a rigid approach to the RBA AWOTE objective, for three reasons:
1. The AWOTE figure fails to comprehend the impact of compositional change or to adequately account for productivity growth associated with wages increases arising out of agreements. Both factors would reduce the inflationary consequences of any given level of aggregate wages growth;
2. The RBA Governor recognises that the AWOTE target does not constitute a precise indicator for purposes of monetary policy settings (see Exhibit ACTU 3 at tab 8); and
3. Monetary and fiscal policy settings are fixed and altered having regard to a broad range of economic indicators and considerations.
Given the existing levels of aggregate wages growth and inflation, the cost impact associated with a moderate safety net adjustment would be consistent with AWOTE and inflation objectives. AWOTE grew by 3.7% (3.9% trend) in the year to the December quarter 1997, showing some moderation. AWOTE data is likely to be overstated due to compositional change. Inflation remains low. Such an increase would, in our view, allow the continuation of aggregate wages growth and low inflation and would have a marginal impact on monetary policy settings given the range of factors influencing those settings.
6.7.2 Micro-Economic Effects
Turning to the micro-economic effects, we have much the same material before us as was before the Full Bench in the last case although it has been augmented by further studies. These additional studies are dealt with in Attachment C.
Having considered the material in Attachment C, we do not depart from the conclusions contained in the April 1997 majority decision. Our assessment is that moderate increases in the wages of the low paid, of themselves, do little or nothing to diminish job prospects. We are satisfied that, at most, very limited effects on employment would result from such an adjustment.
6.8 The Effect of a Safety Net Adjustment on Productivity
The Joint Governments and employer associations submitted that safety net increases will have a negative effect on productivity growth because such increases reduce the incentive for bargaining.
The ACTU submitted that a requirement to pay reasonable minimum rates will increase the incentive for employers to bargain and bring about a greater focus on productivity improvements to offset increased wages. The ACTU relied on AWIRS data cited by Dr David Peetz [Exhibit ACTU 26 at tab 9] which suggests that productivity growth has proceeded as strongly in the non-bargaining sector as it has in the bargaining sector.
We conclude that it is unlikely that a safety net adjustment of itself will have a significant effect on productivity growth.
6.9 Sectoral Effects
The Joint Governments and employer associations emphasised the need to take account of sectoral considerations in determining the ACTU claim. It was submitted that:
· safety net adjustments would have a differential impact between and within sectors depending on the level of wages actually paid relative to award rates;
· economic circumstances vary between sectors; and
· Asian developments will impact differently between and within industry sectors.
The Joint Governments submitted that:
· actual wage rates are more likely to reflect award rates in rural areas than in capital cities; and
· the unemployment rate in rural areas is higher than in capital cities.
They also submitted that:
". . . the ACTU claim, were it to be granted, would be likely to have the greatest adverse impact in four industry divisions in particular, viz: accommodation, cafes and restaurants; retail trade; health and community services; and personal and other services." [Exhibit JG 1 at 137]
ACCI focussed on the differential effect of safety net adjustments, submitting that the impact of the ACTU claim should be considered by reference to its effect on typical enterprises rather than on aggregate costs.
The submissions of the Joint Employers dealt with the manufacturing sector through survey data directed to assessing the effect of Asian developments on their members.
In respect of the Asian developments, they said that:
". . . while aggregate outcomes are important to the policy making process, the swirl of effects now in operation makes GDP forecasts much less useful ingredients than usual of sales outlooks for individual businesses. There are pronounced, short- to medium-term winners and losers in Australian businesses." [Exhibit W 1 at Annexure A]
The retail motor industry provided information in relation to that industry, including survey data, intended to show the impact of safety net adjustments on typical firms within the sector. It submitted that a high proportion of small businesses in the sector paid only award rates and would be subject to safety net adjustments.
The retail motor industry also relied on the results of surveys of its membership which suggested difficult trading conditions.
In determining a claim such as that now before us, the Commission must balance a range of considerations. The differential impact across sectors and firms is one consideration. The level of a safety net increase, however, should not be determined by reference only to the effect on employers. To do so would be inconsistent with our statutory obligations to consider the needs of the low paid when adjusting the safety net.
We think that any exception from a general safety net increase, to assist particular industries or employers, should be limited. The circumstances of a particular employer can, if necessary, be dealt with through the Economic Incapacity principle which allows a consideration of the circumstances applicable to that employer.
6.10 Conclusion
Australia's economic performance over the past year, and since the early 1990s, has been good. Economic growth, productivity growth and investment have been strong. Australia has enjoyed a long period of low inflation, with stable wages growth.
Current economic conditions and the immediate economic outlook are better now than at the time of the April 1997 hearing. Growth is higher, inflation is lower, employment growth has improved and unemployment has fallen. It is agreed, however, that current levels of unemployment remain unacceptably high.
Recent developments in East Asia have clouded the immediate outlook for Australia's economy. These developments are likely to adversely effect net exports from, and economic growth in, Australia, with the greatest impact being expected in 1998-99. Continuing strong domestic demand is expected to offset the impact of weaker international conditions at least in the shorter term. The Australian economy appears better placed now than it has been for some considerable time to withstand any adverse effects arising out of East Asia.
There is no definitive cost estimate of the ACTU claim. The best guide to costs are the ACTU estimates at the higher end and the Joint Government estimates at the lower end. The estimates overlap.
Those estimates indicate an aggregate direct cost of the $20.60 component of the ACTU claim of around 0.65% to 0.74% of AWOTE.
Some indirect costs of the ACTU claim can be expected. Overall we would expect any indirect costs of a safety net adjustment to be limited.
In our view a moderate increase in the award safety net would have a limited effect on aggregate wages growth.
AWOTE growth of 3.7% (or 3.9% trend) in the year to the December quarter 1997 incorporates the effect of the April 1997 $10 safety net increase. Any addition to aggregate wages growth, arising from a safety net increase reflected in AWOTE growth, and consequent economic effects needs to be considered in that context.
The small contribution to aggregate wages growth arising from a moderate safety net increase would have a limited effect on inflation, employment and unemployment and productivity. Such an increase would have a minimal effect on economic activity and employment growth. It would not disturb recent employment growth and reduction in unemployment. Nor would it require restrictive fiscal or monetary policy responses.
Whilst caution is required in the context of unacceptably high levels of unemployment, moderate increases in the wages of the low paid, of themselves, do little or nothing to diminish their job prospects. We are satisfied that, at most, very limited effects on employment would result from such an adjustment.
A safety net adjustment will have a differential impact across sectors and employers within the Australian economy.
A moderate safety net increase can be sustained in the current generally positive economic environment, although a degree of caution is required, having regard to the uncertainty associated with East Asian economic developments.
CHAPTER 7 - NEEDS AND THE LOW PAID
7.1 The Submissions
The Commission received submissions from organisations active in the social welfare sector. Their submissions supplemented those from the parties and others as to the approach to be adopted by the Commission in relation to the requirements of s.88B(2)(a) and (c) of the Act.
ACOSS contended that the role of the award safety net in protecting the living standards of low paid workers had increased in importance, because of recent societal changes, including the shift from centralised wage fixation to a greater reliance on decentralised wage bargaining.
ACOSS argued that wage inequality had significantly increased since 1992 with wage increases gained through enterprise agreements exceeding those gained from increases in award rates of pay. It submitted that the responsibility for wage restraint had fallen predominately on low paid workers who were least able to cope with a decline in living standards. ACOSS expressed concern that the award system had become less relevant to the growing proportion of the workforce engaged in enterprise bargaining.
The award system had become more vulnerable to erosion or abolition. With respect to unemployment, ACOSS was sceptical that a relative decline in low paid workers' wages would significantly reduce unemployment. It contended that aggregate wage restraint and not an increase in wage dispersion was required to reduce unemployment.
It was ACOSS' view that the equity objects in s.88B(2) would be best achieved by the establishment of a benchmark for the adequacy of minimum standards. ACOSS argued that such a benchmark should be the minimum wage level necessary for an adult to live alone at home in decent conditions and be able to participate fully in society. This minimum wage should be integrated into the award structure to ensure it remained relevant to the broader system of wage fixation.
ACOSS also submitted that the Commission should increase the federal minimum wage and preferably all award minimum wages by, at least, the amount of the movements in average ordinary time earnings, but preferably, significantly more than that.
The submission of the Australian Catholic Commission for Industrial Relations (ACCIR) (on behalf of Catholic Church employers in the health, education, welfare and diocesan administration sectors) focussed on the achievement of a "just wage", particularly in the not-for-profit sector.
As to a just wage, ACCIR contended that employers had a duty to pay a wage capable of accounting for an individual's needs, not merely "the level of wage that the labour market demands" [Exhibit ACCIR 1 at 4]. Where employers did not voluntarily accept such a duty there existed a moral responsibility in the State to achieve such an end by means of the Commission's intervention to maintain the federal minimum wage and the award safety net. Associated issues were identified as the just settlement of disputes, attention to minimum standards of conditions of employment and the need to not combat unemployment by reducing wages beneath that level said to be necessary for sustaining a "decent standard of living" [Exhibit ACCIR 1 at 4].
In the welfare, education, health and church administration sectors, the issue of wage movement against fixed grants was said to show that "enterprise bargaining holds little attraction." [Exhibit ACCIR 1 at 6]. In such an environment, the primacy of the award safety net and the federal minimum wage to provide fairness and recognition of the needs of the low paid were of equal importance to the promotion of enterprise bargaining. ACCIR sought an annual review of the federal minimum wage "with a view to the long-term rather than the next two years" [Exhibit ACCIR 1 at 12].
ACCIR did not advocate a particular level of increase and generally identified with the ACTU position other than in relation to the continued existence of wage fixing principles. ACCIR highlighted the problems involved in maximising the benefit available to the lowest paid without forsaking others employed within classification structures which recognise skill levels and reflect appropriately determined relativities.
The Brotherhood reaffirmed the position it adopted in the April 1997 case that an award increase much greater than $8 per week should be granted. Concern was again expressed over "increasing wage inequity" and indications that "wage poverty" is likely to be occurring [Exhibit Brotherhood, November 1996 at 1]. It was submitted that the increase resulting from the April 1997 case was too low and that wage inequities and poverty were "not a necessary policy measure to reduce unemployment" [Brotherhood correspondence, 9 January 1998 at 1].
As stated elsewhere in this decision, the submission of the Joint Employers, as in the April 1997 case, was for a cautious approach to be adopted by the Commission in considering the ACTU claim. The key component in balancing what the Joint Employers described as the competing elements in s.88B was the need to maintain the real value of award wages for the lowest paid while guarding against the creation of inflationary pressure. They submitted that this objective could be met by an increase of $8. The ACTU claim, over two years, would represent a level of increase inimical to the encouragement of bargaining.
ACCI, in addressing the needs of the low paid submitted that poverty, in its true sense, had been virtually eliminated in Australia. ACCI stated that there would always be some individuals who earned less than others and who had a correspondingly lower standard of living. Age, skill, education and other factors would always result in a wide earnings distribution across the workforce. However, this did not necessarily mean that individuals with a lower standard of living were living in poverty. There were some very poor people but very few of them would be in families having members in employment. If the ACTU's claim were granted there would be large increases in unemployment and those who became unemployed as a result of the granting of it, would be significantly worse off. The greatest protection against poverty was a job.
In ACCI's submission the central issue was how productivity could be increased, thereby resulting in an increase in all wages. ACCI argued that this would be a better outcome than the ACTU's route of narrowing the earnings distribution by increasing the wages of the lowest paid. No matter how fast incomes grew, there would always be some individuals who earned less than others.
The Joint Governments contrasted the reliance placed by the ACTU on the needs of the low paid with their view that this consideration is but one factor to be considered in the current review. We were asked to consider the effect on the low paid of the social safety net. It was not proposed, however, "that the level of benefits and protection available to low income earners through the social safety net is itself a factor to be taken into account" [Exhibit JG 1 at 178]. Such an approach was at odds with the need for the Commission and Governments to react flexibly as economic and social situations alter.
The Joint Governments submitted that the wages system was of limited use to achieve social equity goals because of its inability, compared to the social safety net, to target and redress need. The diversity in household living arrangements was given as an example of the more effective reach of the social safety net compared with the wages system. Of critical importance was the potential for an adverse effect on employment to result from "large real increases in award rates" [Exhibit JG 1 at 178].
As to the increase in the wages gap between those in the bargaining stream and those reliant on award rates of pay, the Joint Governments submitted that the obligation on the Commission to establish and maintain a safety net of fair minimum wages and conditions, having regard to generally prevailing living standards and the needs of the low paid, did not require the Commission "to make an exact determination of prevailing living standards nor is it required to match or reflect prevailing living standards in the community in the award minima" [Exhibit JG 1 at 180]. Definitions and measurement of living standards were said to be subjective, unhelpful in encouraging expectations, and supportive of a formula approach to minimum award wage fixation. Award wage levels should not be determined by "overall measurement or growth of living standards or to bear some particular relationship to market rates" [Exhibit JG 1 at 181].
The impact of income support arrangements and other aspects of the social security framework were referred to as reflecting a wide measure of living standards so that "it is not appropriate to measure living standards merely by examining rates of pay and levels of expenditure" [Exhibit JG 1 at 181]. Further, it was submitted that s.88B(2)(a) does not require the Commission "to set minimum standards that match living standards or the growth in average living standards" [Exhibit JG 1 at 82]. This would risk reflecting the results of bargaining in the assessment of fair minima.
In assessing the living standards of the low paid, the Joint Governments argued that the varied ways by which government policies in Australia benefited the low paid were relevant considerations. Assistance took "the form of direct cash transfers such as pensions and family payments and indirect benefits such as the free or subsidized provision of goods and services" [Exhibit JG 1 at 183]. Such expenditure on social security and welfare payments was estimated in the Joint Governments' submission to account for some 37% of total Government expenditure in 1997-98.
The Joint Governments submitted that Australia's social safety net was well developed, amongst the most efficient in the Western world, "designed to provide an adequate income" by targeting "payments to those most in need" and encouraged "self-help and financial independence" [Exhibit JG 1 at 183]. In emphasising the contribution of cash and non-cash benefits the ACTU's application of the ABS Household Expenditure Survey was, as in 1997, open to criticism for its averaging different household sizes and making assumptions from average group expenditure as reflecting need [Exhibit JG 1 at 188].
The Joint Governments' submissions identified the difficulty in targeting the varying needs of individual wage earners with dependants, particularly in the light of the conclusion available from the STINMOD microsimulation model that low wage earners tended not to live in households where there were no other employed persons. This was said to support the conclusion that the great proportion of wage and salary earners in the bottom two quintiles of earnings are not required to rely only on their own income [Exhibit JG 1 at 192]. There were said to be poor distribution consequences as a result of this occurring which supported the targeting of increases to favour employees with low hourly earnings.
Information was provided by the Joint Governments which supported the view that the period 1989 to 1997 witnessed increasing real disposable incomes for notional households. Specific examples of such increases were the effect of the taxation system and cash transfers on single income, two children families, deriving income at the Metal Industry Award C13 rate [Exhibit JG 1 at 197]. Between 1988-89 and 1997 final income incorporating both cash and non-cash transfers grew, for households in the bottom quintile, by 4.8%. These factors, with the earnings mobility said to particularly benefit low paid workers through promotion, were, it was submitted, central to an examination of living standards [Exhibit JG 1 at 200-204].
We were urged by the Joint Governments to approach the matter of living standards having regard to the social safety net, the difficulties of delivering social equity benefits through the industrial relations system and improvements in the position of the low paid. In this context the reduction of unemployment was the principal remedy for inequity and poverty.
The stated rationale behind the ACTU's Living Wage claim was the right of all Australian workers to a decent standard of living. The ACTU argued that an adequate minimum wage was one that was sufficient to attain a level of material and social well being that was minimally acceptable by the community generally. There was a role for minimum wages, together with income support payments, in preventing poverty within families. The consensual poverty line was a useful benchmark indicator for income adequacy and single households without children would be an appropriate benchmark household type. Low paid employment was concentrated in certain sectors of the economy; small business and parts of wholesale/retail trade and hospitality industries. However, the ACTU in this case, was not seeking to revisit the debate in the April 1997 case regarding appropriate benchmarks nor for the Commission to determine this case on a benchmark approach.
It was the ACTU's submission that its claim was justified because the main beneficiaries of granting it would be low paid workers. The characteristics of these beneficiaries were:
· workers whose income was substantially dependent on award rates: i.e. workers having no or limited access to overaward payments;
· workers with no access to workplace or enterprise agreements;
· workers whose award classifications are at the lower end of the award structure; and
· workers whose incomes would fall in the bottom quarter or bottom third of the overall income distribution.
The ACTU submitted that the award safety net was an important means of addressing and preventing decline in the living standards of low earning households. If the Commission granted the claim, it would assist in alleviating the needs of, and the special problems faced by, low paid workers. These included:
· struggling to make ends meet;
· going without basic necessities;
· being predominantly in home rental, rather than home ownership market; and
· inequality of opportunity.
The ACTU called evidence from fourteen low paid workers, all of whom would benefit from the claim, if granted. The ACTU contended that these witnesses were broadly representative of low paid workers and that they constituted a microcosm of working Australians reliant on award rates. The ACTU argued that the witnesses made choices between basics rather than between discretionary or luxury categories of expenditure. The evidence was that the witnesses had basic needs which were not met. These needs were for basic commodities and services which were an integral part of a decent standard of living. The needs of the witnesses were reasonable ones which the witnesses dealt with by the juggling of tight budgets and by going without.
The ACTU also submitted that the needs of the low paid had to be considered in the context of living standards generally prevailing in the Australian community. It argued that a key determinant of living standards was the level of income received by various groups in the community and the rate at which those levels had increased. The ACTU pointed to data which it contended showed that, until 1992, movements in award rates mirrored AWOTE (albeit at a lesser rate). However, since then, there have been low level increases in award wage rates with higher levels of increases in average earnings and through enterprise agreements [Exhibit ACTU 24 at chart 22.1]. The ACTU argued that its claim should be granted to prevent low paid workers falling further behind. Statistics were provided as to increases in executive salaries and increases determined by the Remuneration Tribunal.
The ACTU submitted that the deteriorating position of the low paid was apparent from the chart below:
The chart shows a growing dispersion in real wage increases at various levels within the group. The greatest contrast is between the 10th percentile and the 90th percentile. In the period under consideration, the lowest paid 10% of non-managerial employees has received almost no increase in real wages whilst the highest paid 10% has received a real wage increase of about 14%.
New South Wales submitted that the ACTU's claims were of particular importance to low paid female employees and would, if granted, benefit female employees in a number of ways. The absorption of the minimum rates adjustment into overaward payments would help compensate for female employees' lesser access to overaward payments. This would assist markedly in minimising the discrepancy between the earnings of men and women. Due to a higher concentration of women in the non-bargaining sector the differential between enterprise bargaining outcomes and award safety net increases affects women disproportionately. Strengthening the safety net would partially redress the position.
Section 88B(2)(a) and (c) of the Act provides that the Commission must ensure that a safety net of minimum wages and conditions of employment is established and maintained, having regard to:
"(a) the need to provide fair minimum standards for employees in the context of living standards generally prevailing in the Australian community . . .
(c) when adjusting the safety net, the needs of the low paid."
The following general observations can be made on the basis of the material before us:
· since 1992-93 there has been a growing disparity between growth in AWOTE and increases in award rates of pay;
· the gap between income levels established as a result of bargaining and those determined by the award system is widening. As a consequence income inequality in Australia is increasing; and
· the witness evidence and other material leads us to conclude that many low paid employees are struggling to make ends meet and have to go without basic necessities.
CHAPTER 8 - THE DECISION ON THE
ACTU WAGE CLAIM
The economy has performed relatively strongly since the early 1990s. In particular, in the past year economic growth has accelerated, inflation has remained low and unemployment has fallen. The safety net adjustment of $10 per week awarded in April of last year, whilst providing a benefit to those relying upon award rates of pay, has not had any adverse effects on the level of inflation and unemployment. The immediate economic outlook is generally positive with strong domestic demand likely to continue into 1998-99.
We are conscious, however, of the economic uncertainty generated by the recent deterioration in a number of East Asian economies and the impact which those developments will have on Australia. We note that while the Commonwealth has not revised its mid-term forecasts for growth, employment and unemployment for the next year, it expects that the slowdown in Asia will dampen growth in 1998-99. ACCI submitted that with careful economic management Australia can probably avoid most of the problems associated with the Asian downturn. These assessments do not, however, support the conclusion that a safety net increase should not be granted at this time. Nor do they support the conclusion that the $8 per week increase capped at $451.20 proposed by the Joint Governments is the most that could be awarded without putting undue strain on the economy.
We are also aware that, as submitted by ACCI and others, safety net adjustments have a different economic effect as between industries and within industries. The cost impact will be greatest where overaward payments are lowest. Against that, it is a necessary implication of the safety net concept incorporated in the legislation that there be minimum wages and conditions applying in all industries. Nevertheless we have taken these issues into account and regard them as considerations which militate against granting the full amount of the claim.
Another important factor is that safety net adjustments and any labour cost increase associated with them will occur within a few months of legislated increases in employer superannuation contributions. We have concluded, however, that in light of the generally positive economic environment there is still scope, taking increased superannuation costs into account, to improve the position of the low paid.
On the material before us, we are satisfied that a safety net adjustment can be made with limited effect on aggregate wage costs and on the economy generally. This conclusion is supported by the evidence concerning the effect of the April 1997 safety net increase. Notwithstanding that increase, inflation has continued to abate and employment has continued to grow, albeit at a rate which is too slow. The adjustment we have decided upon is moderate, although higher than awarded in last year's case. Ultimately it is a question of judgment - of balancing two potentially conflicting imperatives. Those imperatives are, firstly, to confine safety net increases to a magnitude which will not lead to unfavourable effects on productivity, inflation and employment and, secondly, to ensure that any such increases have regard to the needs of the low paid and the need to provide fair minimum standards for employees in the context of living standards generally prevailing in the Australian community.
The ACTU provided a chart of movements in the real earnings of full-time adult non-managerial employees in the period from 1975 to 1996. The chart is set out in Chapter 7 of this decision. We have taken the dispersion in real earnings growth shown in the chart into account in making our decision, because of its obvious relevance to our statutory responsibility to consider the needs of the low paid. Given the pre-eminent role of workplace or enterprise bargaining in the legislative framework, growth in the award wage safety net is likely to lag behind earnings growth as measured by AWOTE. The current economic conditions provide an opportunity for a safety net adjustment which will constitute an increase in real wages for employees at the lower award levels who are dependent on safety net adjustments for wage increases.
The adjustment we have decided on will result in a manageable net addition to the growth in aggregate labour costs as reflected in AWOTE growth over the past year. The increases have been structured to provide greatest assistance to those in receipt of the lowest rates prescribed in awards, whilst moderating the cost impact over the economy as a whole.
We have decided on an arbitrated safety net adjustment of the following amounts:
1. a $14 per week increase in award rates up to and including $550 per week;
2. a $12 per week increase in award rates above $550 per week and up to and including $700 per week; and
3. a $10 per week increase in award rates above $700 per week.
We intend that this adjustment should only be available for the benefit of employees who are dependent on the award system for increases in wages. Accordingly, it will not generally be available when award rates have been increased other than for the safety net adjustments available since 1 November 1991. Increases flowing from the application of the Minimum Rates Adjustment and Work Value Changes principles will be exceptions to this general rule.
We have decided to provide that allowances which relate to work or conditions which have not changed and service increments should be adjusted as a result of the arbitrated safety net increase we have determined. This is consistent with the Commission's approach in recent safety net decisions.
In assessing the cost of this adjustment to the economy, we have obtained broad guidance from the upper end of the ACTU's cost estimates and from the lower end of the Joint Governments' cost estimates. The Joint Governments' lower level estimates suggest that the direct effect of a $14 safety net adjustment to all award rates is an increase in the order of 0.44% in aggregate wage costs. The lesser increases we have decided to award at the higher levels of award rates will have a moderating effect. Whilst on the information before us it is not possible to be precise, it is reasonable to conclude that the aggregate direct cost impact of our decision will be slightly less than 0.44%.
Although the direct effect of our adjustment on AWOTE growth may be in the region of 0.44%, that increase can be seen in the following context. Current AWOTE growth reflects the effect of the April 1997 increase on award rates. During the April 1997 case, the Joint Governments estimated that an increase of $10 per week (uncapped) would add 0.34% to aggregate wages. The effects of the 1997 increase have not yet ceased to effect AWOTE growth. The net direct effect on AWOTE growth of the increases we have awarded, when the influence of the April 1997 increase has ceased, is likely to be around 0.1%. Whilst there would be some indirect effect, we think it would be limited. In drawing attention to this statistical measure, we should also make it clear that undue emphasis on the rate of growth can disguise the fact that each safety net adjustment raises the level of award wages and hence the cost of employment.
We are satisfied that in the current economic environment a safety net adjustment having such a limited additional effect on aggregate wages growth will not have any significant negative effects on employment, inflation or productivity. The increases are consistent with aggregate wages growth and levels of inflation which are within official policy objectives.
There is a potential for adverse economic effects if the increases we have awarded are not absorbed into overaward payments and payments under enterprise agreements. Given the lack of evidence of non-absorption in the past, we think the probability of this potential being realised is low. We also think that the probability of this adjustment flowing into the bargaining process and leading to unsustainable increases is also low. No party suggested that the indirect effects of the $10 safety net adjustment of April 1997 were economically significant. Should circumstances alter on this occasion, that fact will need to be taken into account in future safety net cases.
As on earlier occasions, we are concerned about the effect of flat rate increases on award wage relativities. In 1989 the Commission introduced the Minimum Rates Adjustment principle in an attempt to correct inequities in the wages system because of the potential for those inequities to cause industrial disputation and instability. That Principle was concerned primarily with relativities across awards at the key classification level but also with vertical relativities. The resulting relativity levels were widely adopted in minimum rates awards. Flat increases tend to distort vertical relativities. The distortion is greater if the flat increase does not apply above a certain level. All of the parties advocating an increase in the safety net in these proceedings sought a flat increase. In addition a percentage increase, whilst preserving relativities, necessarily maintains the relative position of those at the lower end of the award hierarchy. Flat increases reduce the relativities in percentage terms. There will often be a tension between the maintenance of relativities and addressing the needs of employees at the lower award levels. The approach we have adopted on this occasion is deliberately designed to give a greater increase to award employees at the lower levels, whilst not neglecting the interests of those at the higher levels who also receive no payments other than those prescribed in the award. We have taken the question of relativities into account in formulating the adjustment on this occasion. The tapering of the adjustment at two points in the scale has an effect on relativities which is almost the same as the effect which would result if the $20.60 component of the ACTU claim was granted in full. We add that the maintenance of vertical relativities is a significant reason for our decision to reject the Joint Governments' proposal that any increase awarded only apply to employees classified at or below the C10 rate in the Metal Industry Award.
We have decided to reject the $20 component of the ACTU claim. It is directed to minimum wage increases, rather than to the fixation of minimum award rates. It has no necessary association with the low paid. It is not possible to assess the likely effect on earnings growth of, or the process for giving effect to, this component on the basis of the material before us. This component was not the subject of any detailed cost assessment. It may require the Commission to intervene in bargaining outcomes to produce a minimum level of increase regardless of the level of the actual rates of pay.
Stage 2 of the claim requires us to decide upon increases to apply from April 1999 based on the economic data available now. In the current circumstances there are risks in awarding any increase to apply at that time. We are not prepared to award an adjustment to apply a year from now.
It follows that we also reject the proposals of the Joint Governments and the Joint Employers that we decide now upon a further adjustment to be available in twelve months.
With some exceptions, we intend to adopt the same approach to the implementation of this decision as the majority adopted in the April 1997 decision. A significant exception relates to the treatment of paid rates awards which is dealt with in Chapter 10. Implementation will be subject to the following:
(a) The increases will be fully absorbable against all above award payments.
(b) Any outstanding arbitrated safety net adjustments available under the $8 September 1994, $8 October 1995 and $10 April 1997 decisions will be available from the same date as this arbitrated safety net adjustment.
(c) The commencement of award variations to give effect to this decision will be no earlier than the date on which the award is varied, with phasing-in of increases permissible where circumstances justify it. Any application for phasing-in will be referred to the President for consideration as a special case.
(d) By consent of all parties, and where the minimum rates adjustment has been completed, award rates may be expressed as hourly rates as well as weekly rates; in the absence of consent, a claim that award rates be so expressed may be determined by arbitration.
(e) Allowances which relate to work or conditions which have not changed and service increments are to be varied; the method of adjustment is to be consistent with the Furnishing and Glass Industries Allowances decision [Print M9675].
Appropriate alterations have been made in the Statement of Principles.
9.1 The April 1997 Decision
The Commission in its April 1997 decision decided to establish a federal minimum wage at the level of $359.40 per week for full-time adult employees and proportionate amounts to junior, part-time and casual employees. The clause was subsequently amended by consent in the Textile Industry Award case [Print P1741].
The Commission decided that awards, on application, would be varied to provide for the federal minimum wage. The main reason given by the majority for introducing a federal minimum wage was set out at page 76 of the decision in the following terms:
"We have decided to determine a minimum wage (to be called `the federal minimum wage') for full-time adult employees of $359.40 per week and, for junior, part-time and casual employees, of a proportionate amount. (The federal minimum wage is to be inclusive of the arbitrated safety net adjustment determined by this decision and all previous safety net and national wage adjustments.) The main reason for so deciding is to give effect to the statutory requirement to have regard, when adjusting the safety net, to the needs of the low paid [s.88B(2)(c)]. The federal minimum wage of $359.40 per week is established as the wage below which no full-time adult employee working under a federal award is to be paid."
The majority at page 77 gave the following reasons for setting the federal minimum wage at $359.40:
"For reasons given in Chapter 7.6, we have decided not to link the level of the federal minimum wage with any defined benchmark of needs. We think that the most appropriate course to follow now is to equate the federal minimum wage with the minimum classification rate in most federal awards; that is, the rate of the C14 classification in the Metal Industry Award. This approach (which is consistent with the proposal of the BCA), in our view, lends industrial realism to the minimum wage we have set because it is linked to the classification structure established by the Commission as a result of the `August 1989 decision'. The Commission, in deciding to establish minimum classification rates in the metal and building industries, said:
`Subject to what we say later in this decision, we have decided that the minimum classification rate to be established over time for a metal industry tradesperson and a building industry tradesperson should be $356.30 per week with a $50.70 per week supplementary payment. The minimum classification rate of $356.30 per week would reflect the final effect of the structural efficiency adjustment determined by this decision.' [Print H9100 at p.12]
As a result of this decision, minimum awards were varied, over a period of time, to reflect the relativities so decided, leading to the C14 rate in the Metal Industry Award becoming the minimum classification rate in most federal awards."
9.2 The Submissions
In the current proceedings a number of the parties made submissions regarding the operation of a federal minimum wage and the method for determining its level.
No party proposed that the Commission should not continue to prescribe a federal minimum wage.
The ACTU supported the continuation of the federal minimum wage being linked to the C14 rate in the Metal Industry Award and sought an adjustment to it of $20.60 per week with a further increase of $38 from April 1999 in conformity with its claim for safety net adjustments. In the ACTU's submission, the maintenance of the federal minimum wage at the C14 classification rate would ensure a secure minimum level in award classification structures. The establishment of the federal minimum wage initially at the C14 classification rate would not preclude an adjustment at some future time based on different criteria.
ACCI, while expressing concerns about the level of the federal minimum wage, went on to state that the "value of having a minimum wage exceeds the burdens it creates". ACCI submitted that the federal minimum wage should be left at its present level having regard to the need for jobs growth and a healthy labour market.
The Joint Governments submitted that the decision in the April 1997 decision linking the federal minimum wage to the C14 rate in the Metal Industry Award was inappropriate. They further submitted that breaking the link between the federal minimum wage and the C14 rate would avoid:
". . . any notion of a permanent tie to a specified award classification level would recognise that at times different considerations may be relevant to the adjustment of the federal minimum wage and award classification rates. For example, as the concept of the federal minimum wage is not based on work value, there is an issue whether increases resulting from work value claims would necessarily flow to the federal minimum wage. Conversely in some circumstances targeting increases to the low paid could impact particularly on the federal minimum wage." [Exhibit JG 1 at 93]
They raised a number of other matters concerning the operation of the federal minimum wage. The first matter concerned variations which inserted the federal minimum wage clause into the award but left the classification rate in the award below the federal minimum wage of $359.40. The second matter concerned the adjustment of all internal relativities in the award following the lifting of rates below the federal minimum wage of $359.40 up to the federal minimum wage level. This approach was inconsistent with the Act and the intention of the Commission in its April 1997 decision.
Accordingly, the Joint Governments proposed that the Commission should make a statement that the federal minimum wage is no longer to be linked to the C14 rate in the Metal Industry Award and that we should include an additional phrase in the first sentence in subparagraph (b) in the Federal Minimum Wage principle so that the sentence would read:
"(b) The federal minimum wage is to be provided for in a separate clause in the award and will be inserted as per the decision in the Hairdressing and Beauty Industry (Australian Capital Territory) Award 1985 (that is, clause X will be inserted into awards and in addition those rates below the federal minimum wage will be marked with a footnote stating that `Where the full-time adult weekly wage falls below the federal minimum wage, the federal minimum wage applies - see clause X'). Clause X in the award should read as follows: . . ." [Exhibit JG 1 at 93]
The State of Western Australia (Western Australia), while supporting the submission of the Joint Governments on the federal minimum wage, submitted that the link between the federal minimum wage and the award classification structure be separated, that there be a review of the federal minimum wage and any adjustment of $8 be on an interim basis only. A review of the federal minimum wage would enable the Commission to hear submissions from interested parties, and expert evidence, on the different approaches available for establishing appropriate criteria for determining a federal minimum wage having regard to the requirements on the Commission in establishing a safety net of fair minimum wages under the Act.
The Joint Employers proposed that a flat adjustment of $8 per week be applied to all award rates of pay and to the federal minimum wage.
The Business Council of Australia (BCA), while acknowledging the relevance of the federal minimum wage, questioned the need for it to be linked to an award classification rate. The BCA submitted that the Commission should carefully consider adjustments to the federal minimum wage and that they should fairly reflect movement within the economy.
ACCIR submitted that the Commission should have an annual review of the federal minimum wage based on established principles and guidelines.
ACOSS submitted that the equity objectives set out in s.88B(2) could best be achieved by the establishment of a benchmark for the adequacy of minimum wages based on research into the relative living standards and income needs of low paid workers. The establishment of a benchmark for a minimum wage appropriate to a single adult could be best achieved by the Commission undertaking an inquiry into the living standards of low paid workers with reference to those in the broader community. In the interim the federal minimum wage should be increased at least in line with movements in AWOTE, with the increase preferably being significantly higher.
The Brotherhood submitted that one way of moderating excessive wage dispersion and the resultant growth of "waged poverty" arising from greater decentralisation or deregulation of wage setting is the establishment of a minimum wage through the award safety net. In the submission of the Brotherhood, the evidence suggests that "centralised wage-fixing mechanisms, with the power to regularly adjust wage minima, can actively alleviate waged poverty". The Brotherhood submitted in conclusion:
"The evidence for the benefits of deregulation in terms of employment and productivity gains is, at best, patchy. The evidence for the benefits of centralised wage-fixing mechanisms and regularly adjusted minimum wages for those who are disadvantaged in the labour market is far more compelling. In addition, arguments that the social wage can act as a substitute for higher wages are less than convincing.
Further erosion of these workers' wages and conditions relative to other workers can only be prevented through the retention and improvement of minimum award rates, in conjunction with increased investment in education and training."
The Commission decided in its April 1997 decision not to establish a federal minimum wage by reference to a defined benchmark of needs and not to undertake an inquiry to develop a benchmark of wage adequacy. We have not been persuaded that we should depart from that decision.
Furthermore we have not been persuaded to break the link established in the April 1997 decision between the federal minimum wage and the C14 classification in the Metal Industry Award. Accordingly the adjustment to the C14 classification rate will result in the same adjustment to the federal minimum wage on this occasion.
In deciding in this case to continue to relate the level of the federal minimum wage to that of the C14 classification rate, the Commission is not precluded from taking into account different considerations, unrelated to the C14 rate, in deciding the level of the federal minimum wage in the future.
Classification rates which are below the federal minimum wage should be adjusted through the application of the Minimum Rates Adjustment principle. To cover the position in the interim we have adopted the substance of the Joint Governments' proposal, modified to take account of the clause adopted in the Textile Industry Award 1994 [Print P1741]. The Principle has been amended accordingly.
10.1 The Proposals
The ACTU's position concerning paid rates awards is set out at page 4 of Exhibit ACTU 34 in the following terms:
"If the Commission were to adopt the ACTU approach towards a Living Wage, employees on paid rates awards would be entitled to an increase only if their rates were below minimum rates or if they had not received an increase of $20 since mid-96 or since the 3rd $8 SNA. This would do more to achieve an equitable approach between paid rates and minimum rates awards than the suggestions of the Joint Governments.
In our submission, the terms of the Commission's decision in this Case should apply to paid rates awards. This would be consistent with the April 1997 decision [P1997]. To do otherwise would be to anticipate the results of the award by award inquiry to be carried out through the award simplification process.
The entitlement to a safety net increase of not less than $20 since mid-96 or the third $8 SNA is sought for all workers irrespective of the type of award which covers them, and this Full Bench should affirm the entitlement as a matter of fairness and to maintain an incentive for employers to engage in bargaining.
The applications for $20.60 MRA before this Bench are in respect to minimum rates awards and our submissions in this case have been put in that context. It is open to this Full Bench to provide for the MRAs to apply to paid rates awards, with the question of absorption to be addressed after the conversion issues have been determined through the award simplification process. This is the logical way of dealing with the matter, and is consistent with the process contemplated in the Safety Net Review - Wages decision."
The Joint Governments submitted that the Commission should in respect of the application of any safety net adjustment awarded as a result of these proceedings:
"· not vary paid rates awards or any other awards which do not in practice set minimum rates for SNAs, before it has first converted them to an appropriate minimum rates format; and
· convert paid rates awards to an appropriate minimum rates format as part of the award simplification process." [Exhibit JG 1 at 74]
The Joint Governments proposed that the Commission should specify in the Statement of Principles that the conversion of paid rates awards will be required in relation to:
"· any application to apply SNAs to paid rates awards;
· by converting paid rates awards to minimum rates awards prior to varying them for safety net adjustments, the Commission will ensure that safety net adjustments are applied consistently and to an equitable base across the award system;
· any item 49 application in respect of a paid rates award; and
· post 1 July 1998 the Commission itself moving to simplify a paid rates award." [Exhibit JG 1 at 81]
The Joint Governments acknowledged that the first priority would be for the parties to paid rates awards and the Commission to remove non-allowable award matters and deal with the criteria set out in items 49(7) and (8) of Schedule 5 of the WROLA Act. The matter of conversion of paid rates awards would be deferred to enable priority to be given to finalising all other issues. It was submitted that should the Commission decide to defer conversion of paid rates awards, a timetable should be fixed. In such circumstances, the programme should provide for the conversion of the award to be completed within six months from the date the application is made under item 49 or six months from the date the Commission moves to address the award post 1 July 1998 under item 51 of Schedule 5 of the WROLA Act.
In converting paid rates awards to minimum rates awards, the Joint Governments proposed the following process:
"In all cases the process of conversion should take place in accordance with the paid rates conversion principle which we propose in our submission, which is consistent with the Commission's current `First Award and Extension to an Existing Award Principle' [Print P1997 at 103-104]. This provides that where parties applying for a first award have customarily been covered by a paid rates award the Commission will disaggregate the classification rates in the award into an appropriate minimum rate and residual component. The appropriate minimum rate is to be identified by the valuation, on work value grounds, of key classifications in the award consistent with the August 1989 National Wage Case decision [Print H9100] and section 88B(3)(a) of the Act." [Exhibit JG 1 at 82]
Under the proposal, once the award was converted, future safety net adjustments would only be applied to the minimum rate component of the award with the increases being absorbed into the residual components.
It was submitted that the Act reflects an intention of Parliament that there "should be no special regulatory regime for the ongoing maintenance of paid rates awards". This intent, in the Joint Governments' submission, was reflected by the repeal of those sections of the Industrial Relations Act 1988 (the IR Act) which had a separate regulatory regime for paid rates awards and the present legislative provisions that require the award system to be comprised of minimum rates awards.
The Joint Governments sought a change in the Principles to prohibit the incorporation of agreements into paid rates awards. The incorporation of the terms of agreements into paid rates awards was inconsistent with "both the broad scheme and with specific provisions of the Workplace Relations Act 1996". The widespread incorporation of expired agreements into paid rates awards would result in a widening of the gap between paid rates and minimum rates awards. This would, in the Joint Governments' submission, result in a "relative shift (between the two award types) in the level of the benchmark for the no-disadvantage test". Over time, this would create pressures for wage increases to adjust the no-disadvantage test benchmark in minimum rates awards.
The Joint Governments also sought the removal from the present Principles of "3.3 Making and Varying an Award Above or Below the Safety Net" and any reference to paid rates awards. It was submitted by the Joint Governments that the present Principle continues to allow applications for making and varying paid rates awards to be considered under s.107 of the Act. It was submitted that there was nothing special about varying a paid rates award above or below the safety net which would justify a departure from the Commission's statement in Principle 3.1 that it "will generally not arbitrate in favour of claims above or below the safety net of fair minimum wages and conditions, except in certain circumstances. This applies to those on paid rates as well as minimum rates awards."
The ACTU stated that it would be "completely inappropriate for the Commission to set principles in relation to the conversion of paid rates awards in these proceedings when it is clear that a separate process was contemplated by the `Award Simplification Decision' ". In the ACTU's submission, the establishment of principles, sought by the Joint Governments, governing paid rates awards would be to move away from the "award by award approach adopted in the Award Simplification Case".
The ACTU submitted that there are no paid rates awards before the Commission in the present case and there has been no evidence brought in relation to paid rates awards. Further, the parties to the paid rates awards likely to be affected were "not put on notice that issues in relation to conversion of paid rates awards could be determined in these proceedings".
In the submission of the ACTU, the discretion of items 49(5) and 51(4) should not be determined on a "blanket basis" to paid rates awards without any examination, by evidence and submissions, of the circumstances of particular paid rates awards.
No other party made submissions directed to paid rates awards.
Section 89A(3) precludes the Commission from making paid rates awards in respect of allowable matters. Sections 170MX(3) and 89A(7) provide the Commission with the power to make orders and awards which are not confined to minimum rates awards. Item 49(5) of Schedule 5 of the WROLA Act provides for variation of awards during the interim period on application by one or more parties to an award. Relevantly, item 49(5) provides the following:
"(5) If:
(a) the award provides for rates of pay that, in the opinion of the Commission:
(i) are not operating as minimum rates; or
(ii) were made on the basis that they were not intended to operate as minimum rates; and
(b) the application under this item seeks to have such rates of pay varied so that they are expressed as minimum rates of pay;"
Item 51 of the WROLA Act deals with variation of awards after the end of the interim period and at (4) provides the following:
"(4) If, immediately before the end of the interim period, the award provided for rates of pay that, in the opinion of the Commission:
(a) were not operating as minimum rates of pay; or
(b) were made on the basis that they were not intended to operate as minimum rates;
the Commission may vary the award so that it provides for minimum rates of pay consistent with sections 88A and 88B of the Principal Act and the limitation on the Commission's power in subsection 89A(3) of that Act."
The Commission, in its April 1997 decision, determined it had the power to vary paid rates awards and decided paid rates awards should be varied to include the $10 safety net adjustment. At page 81, the majority set out its decision in the following terms:
"It was submitted by the Joint Governments that, should the Commission determine (contrary to their submission) that the Act did not preclude variation to paid rates awards, the Commission should, nevertheless, as a matter of merit, not vary paid rates awards to include any safety net adjustment. Despite these submissions, we have decided that, on this occasion at least, paid rates awards should be varied pursuant to this decision. In our view, the appropriate time for the Commission to consider whether arbitrated safety net adjustments should continue to apply to paid rates awards is when this case is resumed in early 1998. That hearing will occur at a time close to the end of the 18 month interim period for awards provided for in the transitional provisions of the WROLA Act."
We agree with the submission of the Joint Governments that the various amendments to the Act and the repeal of provisions in the IR Act which specifically dealt with paid rates awards signify that Parliament intended that the award system should be one based on minimum rates awards. However, Parliament has provided for:
· the variation of existing paid rates awards;
· new paid rates awards in special, defined circumstances; and
· a discretion as to whether paid rates awards should be converted to minimum rates awards.
It is within this legislative framework that the submissions of both the Joint Governments and the ACTU have to be considered.
In the Award Simplification Decision [Print P7500] proceedings, the Joint Governments advocated that as part of the award simplification process all paid rates awards be converted to minimum rates. This approach was rejected by the Full Bench which said at page 30:
"We are not prepared to require, as part of an award simplification exercise, that all awards which are not operating as minimum rates awards be converted to minimum rates awards in the manner proposed by the Joint Governments. Whilst this will be an appropriate course where the award is not a paid rates award, we believe there has been insufficient attention given in this case to the treatment of paid rates awards. Items 49(5) and 51(4), which deal with the conversion of awards which are not operating as minimum rates awards, is each discretionary. The legislation contemplates the continuation of paid rates awards in some circumstances. Neither the WROLA Act nor the WR Act in terms requires paid rates awards to be converted. To the contrary, the WR Act permits the variation of such awards and, in specified circumstances, the creation of new ones (ss.170MX and 170MY)."
We also consider it would not be appropriate in the circumstances of this case to adopt the proposal of the Joint Governments that requires the conversion of paid rates awards into minimum rates awards. In the present proceedings, there are no paid rates awards before the Commission and there has been no evidence or material relating to the particular circumstances of paid rates awards placed before us.
We consider that the most appropriate way of dealing with the issues relevant to paid rates awards is to conduct a general review regarding the operation of paid rates awards in the context of the legislative framework. Issues for consideration in such a review would include:
· the relationship between paid rates awards and certified agreements, in particular:
- whether the paid rates status of an award can be maintained in circumstances where the parties bound by that award are party to a certified agreement, and
- whether paid rates awards should be varied to reflect the terms of an expired certified agreement which binds the award parties;
· whether arbitrated safety net adjustments should be applicable to paid rates awards and, if so, on what basis; and
· whether the market is an appropriate consideration in the variation of paid rates awards.
In the interim, consistent with our decision to limit safety net adjustments to employees who rely solely or substantially on the award system for wage increases, we have decided that paid rates awards will only be varied to provide for the arbitrated safety net adjustment we have awarded where the award rates of pay have only been varied for the safety net adjustments which have been available since 1 November 1991. This is dealt with in new Principle 8(f).
In the event that doubt arises as to whether or not the employees covered by a particular award have received award increases in excess of the relevant safety net adjustments, the matter will be referred to a Full Bench for determination.
We have also decided, pending the general review, that paid rates awards ordinarily should not be varied to include the terms and conditions of certified agreements. We have included an appropriate principle reflecting our decision on this issue.
11.1 Should We Retain a Statement of Principles?
In the April 1997 Safety Net Review the majority stated:
"As various provisions of the new Act (such as ss.88B, 89A, 106, 113A, 113B and 143 and Divisions 4 and 8 of Part VIB) and item 49 of Schedule 5 of the WROLA Act specify the manner in which the Commission is now to operate, a Statement of Principles may no longer be necessary. None of the parties, however, argued that the Statement of Principles should be abandoned. Therefore, we have decided at this stage to maintain it." [Print P1997 at 91]
The ACTU submitted in this case that we should abandon the Principles and replace them with a Statement in the following terms:
"The Principles will be rescinded.
In the future individual members of the Australian Industrial Relations Commission will continue to discharge their responsibilities in accordance with the Workplace Relations Act 1996 and the Rules of the Commission.
Individual members of the Commission will continue to be guided by Full Bench decisions of this Commission and other authority in the usual way, and will give effect to determinations of Full Benches as appropriate.
In exercising its powers and obligations under the Act, the Commission will continue to apply structural efficiency considerations, including minimum rates adjustment provisions consistent with the August 1988 [Print H4000], August 1989 [Print H9100] and April 1991 [Print J7400] National Wage Case decisions and the October 1993 Review of Wage Fixing Principles decision (the October 1993 Review decisions [Prints K9700 and K9940]), the August 1994 Review of Wage Fixing Principles decision [Print L4700], the September 1994 Safety Net Adjustment and Review [Print L5300], and the October 1995 Third Safety Net Adjustment and Section 150A decision [Print M5600] (as varied by Print P1997).
Claims based on work value considerations will be determined in the light of these decisions and the Commission's long standing approach to work value matters."
The ACTU provided an analysis of the Principles intended to illustrate that each is redundant for one or both of the following reasons:
· it replicates the provisions of the Act; and
· it restates matters already contained in relevant Full Bench decisions.
The thrust of the submission is that for the most part the Principles are a summary of matters more fully dealt with in the Act or Full Bench decisions and there is no need for a detailed code of that nature. The ACTU also submitted that principles which replicate statutory provisions serve no good purpose and may not accurately reflect the intention of the legislature and that while a prescriptive set of principles may have been a necessary and desirable feature of a centralised wage fixing system, it is not appropriate in the current legislative and wage-fixing environment.
ACCI opposed the ACTU position and submitted that the ACTU position, if it were adopted, would lead to uncertainty and an increase in trade union applications, and the priority given to enterprise agreements might be lessened. It submitted:
"In summary, rescission of the principles is not a responsible position to put, and would be extremely dangerous. The approach most consistent with the statutory directions regarding award movements would in ACCI's submission be to continue on a formal Statement of Principles similar to that currently in force."
The Joint Governments submitted that a Statement of Principles should be maintained because:
"· the principles play a vitally important role in providing guidance to the parties and assist in shaping the parties' expectations in a wages system that continues to evolve;
· principles assist in providing consistency and avoiding uncertainty in the exercise of the Commission's discretion in relation to its dispute prevention and settlement powers;
· it is of value to draw together some legislative matters and codify conventions and past decisions for ease of reference in relation to the matters dealt with by the principles;
· it is worthwhile, for equity reasons, to specify clearly in a formalised set of principles that there is access to such avenues as past wage case decisions, work value applications and applications regarding equal remuneration without discrimination based on sex; and
· in the absence of such principles there is potential for uncertainty and instability in wage fixation."
We have decided to retain a Statement of Principles. Principles promote consistency and tend to reduce uncertainty in the exercise of the Commission's powers. Because of this, principles can enhance the stability of the industrial relations system and contribute to more equitable outcomes. Nevertheless the ACTU's submissions are not without merit and we have taken them into account. Although we will not abandon the concept of a formalised set of principles we intend to simplify the current one. In particular we have decided to delete Principles 1 and 2 and make a series of other changes. The new Statement of Principles is Attachment A.
11.2 Introduction
The first four paragraphs of Principle 1 paraphrase the objectives of the Act and summarise the Commission's principal powers and functions in relation to awards. Whilst a summary of this kind may have been useful in earlier years, the same cannot be said today. In addition, where a doubt arises as to the nature of the award system and the way in which the Commission should exercise its functions and powers the question should be resolved by reference to the exact words of the statute.
The Joint Governments proposed the insertion of the phrase "particularly low paid employees" in the third paragraph. That paragraph would then read:
"The award system provides a safety net of wages and conditions of employment which protects employees, particularly low paid employees, who may be unable to reach workplace agreements while maintaining an incentive to bargain for such agreements. It also provides the benchmark for the no-disadvantage test that the Act requires to be applied before agreements are certified by the Commission." [Emphasis added]
The proposed change was said to reflect the need for the award safety net to focus particularly on the low paid. This was said to be consistent with s.88(2)(c) of the Act which refers to the "needs of the low paid". In light of our decision to delete Principle 1 there is no need to consider this matter further.
The final paragraph of Principle 1 refers to previous national cases which provided for adjustment of award rates generally. There is no need to refer to these cases because they continue to apply, consistent with their terms, subject to any later decision specifically overriding them or modifying their terms. The deletion of this paragraph does not alter that position and the matter is adequately addressed in new Principle 3.
11.3 Agreement Making
Principle 2 "Agreement Making" paraphrases a number of the provisions in the Act which encourage the making of agreements and limit the Commission's arbitral role. We see no particular value in retaining the Principle in the current industrial environment.
11.4 The Safety Net
We propose to modify Principle 3.1 in a number of ways. The first and third paragraphs are of little importance now that the safety net concept is well understood and we have decided to delete them. We have decided to include a reference to the award simplification process because that process will lead to changes in the safety net in each award.
We have also decided to delete paragraphs (a) to (e) of Principle 3.2.1 which are not necessary. Paragraph 3.4 has been modified in order to emphasise the legislative framework within which applications for first awards, or to extend existing awards, are to be determined.
11.5 Award Level Claims
The Joint Governments submitted that claims for wage increases at the individual award level, other than those consistent with paragraph 3.2 of the current Statement of Principles, are inconsistent with the changed nature of the award safety net under the new legislative framework. It was submitted that the award safety net should now serve as a minimum foundation protecting against hardship rather than as a safety net underpinning bargaining. Individual award variations for wage increases whether by consent or not and whether they involve productivity trade-offs or not were said to be inconsistent with this revised role for the award safety net. In particular it was submitted that such individual award variations are inconsistent with:
· the clear separation in the scheme of the Act of the award system from bargaining and agreements;
· the role of the Commission in encouraging agreements between employees and employers at the enterprise level, including its role in relation to the making and varying of awards;
· the revised role for the award safety net, that is, to provide fair minima for employees who need the protections it supplies, rather than to underpin direct bargaining or to constitute a secure, relevant and consistent alternative if bargaining fails;
· the requirement for arbitration to be used as a last resort and the need for any alteration to wage relativities between awards to be based on work value considerations; and
· the economic objectives of the Act, including in relation to low inflation and high employment.
The Joint Governments proposed four amendments to the Statement of Principles intended to make it clear that difficulties in achieving a result through enterprise bargaining are not a valid reason for increasing award wages or conditions. The amendments proposed are as follows:
"(i) The insertion of the phrase `at the enterprise or workplace level' in the first sentence in Principle 2 `Agreement Making' so that the sentence would read as follows:
The Commission facilitates agreement making at the enterprise or workplace level (ss.170L and 170LA) in a number of ways including the following:
(ii) The insertion of the following additional subparagraph in Principle 2 `Agreement Making':
(e) By not arbitrating or ratifying wage increases at the individual award level in response to applications based on the failure of enterprise or workplace level bargaining regardless of whether such applications involve award-level productivity trade-offs.
(iii) The insertion of the phrase `on a test case basis' in the third paragraph of Principle 3.1 `Award Safety Net' so that the paragraph would read as follows:
The award safety net may on application be reviewed and adjusted from time to time, on a test case basis, in accordance with the Act.
(iv) The addition of two additional sentences to the end of the first paragraph of Principle 3.3 `Making and Varying an Award Above or Below the Safety Net' so that the paragraph would read as follows:
An application to make or vary an award for wages or conditions above or below the safety net will be referred to the President for consideration as a special case. Applications based on difficulties in achieving results from enterprise or workplace level bargaining will not be recognised as constituting a special case for wage increases above the safety net regardless of whether such wage increases are associated with award level productivity trade-offs. Employees unable to achieve an agreement are instead protected by an award safety net as maintained by the Commission."
We have decided not to make these changes. There are four reasons for our decision.
First, the number of award level claims has been limited and, to date, unsuccessful (see Prints P0926 and P5291).
Second, applications to make or vary an award for wages or conditions above the safety net are currently referred to the President for consideration as a special case pursuant to paragraph 3.3 of the Statement of Principles. In our view the special case mechanism provides an appropriate means of dealing with such applications.
Third, the Act does not automatically proscribe claims above the safety net. While s.88B(3)(a) and the maintenance of stable relativities consistent with the August 1989 National Wage Case decision are relevant to the Commission's consideration of such claims they are not necessarily determinative.
Fourth, the Joint Governments' proposed variation of paragraph 3.3 of the current Statement of Principles is, in our view, inequitable. The proposal would effectively prohibit employees from putting a case for an award wage increase on that basis. However there is no reciprocal prohibition on employers. An employer who is unable to achieve an agreement to, for example, reduce penalty rates, would still be able to pursue an application to vary the award to achieve the same objective.
Furthermore, principles which do nothing more than paraphrase the relevant statutory provisions may do little to assist in the application of the legislation. It is primarily for that reason that we have deleted Principle 2.
11.6 Conversion of Paid Rates Awards to Minimum Rates Structures
The Joint Governments submitted that the Commission should specify in the Statement of Principles that the conversion of paid rates awards will be required in relation to:
· any application to apply SNAs to paid rates awards;
- by converting paid rates awards to minimum rates awards prior to varying them for safety net adjustments, the Commission will ensure that safety net adjustments are applied consistently and to an equitable base across the award system;
· any item 49 application in respect of a paid rates award; and
· after 1 July 1998, the Commission itself moving to simplify a paid rates award.
As we have already indicated in Chapter 10, this proposal is rejected.
11.7 Varying Paid Rates Awards for the Outcome of Agreement
The Joint Governments submitted that agreement outcomes should not be incorporated into any award, including a paid rates award. They proposed that we modify the middle paragraph of Principle 3.3 "Making and Varying an Award Above or Below the Safety Net" to remove the reference to s.95 (which acts to encourage parties to make applications under that section when the section's intention is in fact the opposite, that is, to prevent the interaction between agreements and awards) and to make it clear that applications to incorporate expired agreements into awards will not constitute a special case. The paragraph would then read as follows:
"Applications involving a consideration of section 89(A)(7) are subject to this principle. Applications involving claims to incorporate agreements (expired or otherwise) into awards (paid or minimum rates) will not be considered to constitute a special case under this principle." [Additional words underlined]
As already indicated in Chapter 10, we have accepted this proposal on an interim basis in relation to paid rates awards. We have adopted the substance of the Joint Governments' proposal.
11.8 Economic Incapacity
The Joint Governments pressed the submission which they made in the April 1997 proceedings that the Commission should make significant modifications to the Economic Incapacity principle. It was submitted that it has been extremely difficult to establish grounds of economic incapacity pursuant to the current Statement of Principles. It was argued that it was vital that the Commission "free up" the incapacity to pay principle to ensure that safety net adjustments do not put the job of any Australian worker at risk.
Seven changes were proposed:
(i) the introduction of an additional alternative of phasing-in an increase in labour costs;
(ii) the Commission should give considerable weight to evidence relating to employment losses;
(iii) the reference to "very serious" and "extreme" economic adversity should be removed;
(iv) it should be sufficient if the evidence presented in applications at the industry or sectoral level demonstrated that a significant majority of the enterprises covered by the application would be adversely affected, for example, by examining a cross-section of representative enterprises;
(v) where an application relates to a region already experiencing a high level of unemployment, the prima facie position should be that significant employment losses would result from an arbitrated addition to labour costs;
(vi) economic incapacity claims on an enterprise basis should be able to be dealt with by a single member of the Commission; and
(vii) the nature of any evidentiary requirements should have regard to the circumstances of the business(es) affected by the application, and in particular the operational constraints faced by small business.
The Joint Governments accordingly proposed that the Principle be modified to the following:
"Economic Incapacity
(a) Any respondent or group of respondents, including at an industry or sectoral level, to an award may apply to temporarily reduce, postpone or phase-in the application of any increase in labour costs determined under this Statement of Principles, including increases from past National Wage Cases, on the grounds of economic adversity and in particular if the arbitrated increase will lead directly to significant employment losses.
Such applications may seek to temporarily reduce, postpone or phase-in such increases in respect of particular geographic locations or regions where the economic circumstances are such that the increase would lead directly to employment losses.
(b) Applications on an individual enterprise basis will be dealt with by a single member of the Commission. Applications concerning multiple enterprises, including at an industry or sectoral level, must be made and justified pursuant to section 107. It will then be a matter for the President to decide whether it should be dealt with by a Full Bench.
(c) The Commission will determine, in the light of the particular circumstances of each case, whether a temporary reduction, postponement or phasing-in of an increase is in the public interest, for example, as part of a business strategy dealing with a short term business crisis and revival or to avoid employment losses. The type of evidence required on economic adversity and incapacity to pay will depend on the number and type of enterprises affected by the application. For example, regard will be had to the operational circumstances of small businesses in deciding on evidentiary requirements affecting them. Evidence presented in applications concerning multiple enterprises will only be required to demonstrate that a significant majority of the enterprises covered by the application would be adversely affected.
(d) Any decision to temporarily reduce or postpone an increase will be subject to a further review, the date of which will be determined by the Commission at the time it granted any application under this principle".
We have decided to reject the Joint Governments' proposal for the following reasons:
· similar submissions were rejected in the April 1997 Review decision;
· the "freeing up" of the Economic Incapacity principle would be inconsistent with the "safety net" of the award system;
· the Commission has long expressed the view that incapacity arguments should be limited to individual respondents and/or groups of respondents where all members of the group can claim "very serious or extreme economic adversity". The diversity of economic positions in sectors covered by an award may make it inappropriate to exempt all sectors from an increase in labour costs (see Food Preservers' Award 1973 (1982) 285 CAR 10; Pastoral Industry (Wages and Allowances) Award, Print G5732; Pastoral Industry case, Print J1761).
We will, however, amend the current paragraph 3.5 to make it clear that, if very serious or extreme economic adversity is established, the application of any increase in labour costs may be temporarily reduced, postponed and/or phased-in. Any decision to temporarily reduce or postpone an increase will be subject to a further review, the date of which will be determined by the Commission at the time of making any such decision.
11.9 Federal Minimum Wage
This Principle will be amended to reflect the safety net adjustment and the matters dealt with in Chapter 9.
BY THE COMMISSION:
PRESIDENT
ATTACHMENT A
STATEMENT OF PRINCIPLES
1. Role of Arbitration and the Award Safety Net
Existing wages and conditions in the relevant awards of the Commission constitute the safety net which protects employees who may be unable to reach an enterprise or workplace agreement. The award safety net also provides the benchmark for the no-disadvantage test that the Workplace Relations Act 1996 (the Act) requires be applied before agreements are certified.
As a result of the award simplification process, awards will, where necessary, be varied so that they:
· act as a safety net of fair minimum wages and conditions of employment [s.88A(b)];
· are simplified and suited to the efficient performance of work according to the needs of particular workplaces or enterprises [s.88A(c)]; and
· encourage the making of agreements between employers and employees at the workplace or enterprise level [s.88A(d)].
This evolving award system will remain the safety net referred to in the Act. It will, and is intended by the legislature to, change in response to economic, social and industrial circumstances.
In the following circumstances an award may, on application, be varied or another award made without the application being regarded as a claim for wages and/or conditions above or below the award safety net:
(a) to include previous National Wage Case increases in accordance with Principle 3;
(b) to incorporate test case standards in accordance with Principle 4;
(c) to adjust allowances and service increments in accordance with Principle 5;
(d) to adjust wages pursuant to work value changes in accordance with Principle 6;
(e) to reduce standard hours to 38 per week in accordance with Principle 7;
(f) to adjust wages for arbitrated safety net adjustments in accordance with Principle 8;
(g) to vary an award to include the federal minimum wage in accordance with Principle 9;
(h) in response to applications made pursuant to item 49 of Schedule 5 of the Workplace Relations and Other Legislation Amendment Act 1996 (WROLA Act); and
(i) to make orders under Part VIA of the Act.
Increases available under previous National Wage Case decisions such as structural efficiency adjustments, minimum rates adjustments and previous arbitrated safety net adjustments will, on application, still be accessible.
Test case standards involving allowable award matters [s.89A(2)] established and/or revised by the Commission may be incorporated in an award. Where disagreement exists as to whether a claim involves a test case standard or a non-allowable award matter, a party asserting that it does must make and justify an application pursuant to s.107. It will then be a matter for the President to decide whether the claim should be dealt with by a Full Bench.
(a) Existing allowances which constitute a reimbursement of expenses incurred may be adjusted from time to time where appropriate to reflect relevant changes in the level of such expenses.
(b) Adjustment of existing allowances which relate to work or conditions which have not changed and of service increments for monetary safety net increases will be determined in each case by the Full Bench dealing with the safety net adjustment.
(c) In accordance with the Safety Net Review - Wages April 1998 decision [Print Q1998] allowances which relate to work or conditions which have not changed and service increments will be adjusted as a result of the arbitrated safety net increase. (The method of adjustment is to be consistent with the Furnishing and Glass Industries Allowances decision [Print M9675].)
(d) In circumstances where the Commission has determined that it is appropriate to adjust existing allowances relating to work or conditions which have not changed and service increments for a monetary safety net increase, the method of adjustment should be consistent with the Furnishing and Glass Industries Allowances decision [Print M9675]. Such allowances and service increments should be increased by a percentage derived as follows: divide the monetary safety net increase by the rate of pay for the key classification in the relevant award immediately prior to the application of the safety net increase to the award rate and multiply by 100.
(e) Existing allowances for which an increase is claimed because of changes in the work or conditions will be determined in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Work Value Changes principle of this Statement of Principles.
(f) New allowances to compensate for the reimbursement of expenses incurred may be awarded where appropriate having regard to such expenses.
(g) Where changes in the work have occurred or new work and conditions have arisen, the question of a new allowance, if any, will be determined in accordance with the relevant principles of this Statement of Principles. The relevant principles in this context may be Work Value Changes or First Award and Extension to an Existing Award.
(h) New service increments may only be awarded to compensate for changes in the work and/or conditions and will be determined in accordance with the relevant parts of the Work Value Changes principle of this Statement of Principles.
(a) Changes in work value may arise from changes in the nature of the work, skill and responsibility required or the conditions under which work is performed. Changes in work by themselves may not lead to a change in wage rates. The strict test for an alteration in wage rates is that the change in the nature of the work should constitute such a significant net addition to work requirements as to warrant the creation of a new classification or upgrading to a higher classification.
In addition to meeting this test a party making a work value application will need to justify any change to wage relativities that might result not only within the relevant internal award structure but also against external classifications to which that structure is related. There must be no likelihood of wage leapfrogging arising out of changes in relative position.
These are the only circumstances in which rates may be altered on the ground of work value and the altered rates may be applied only to employees whose work has changed in accordance with this Principle.
(b) In applying the Work Value Changes principle, the Commission will have regard to the need for any alterations to wage relativities between awards to be based on skill, responsibility and the conditions under which work is performed [s.88B(3)(a)].
(c) Where new or changed work justifying a higher rate is performed only from time to time by persons covered by a particular classification, or where it is performed only by some of the persons covered by the classification, such new or changed work should be compensated by a special allowance which is payable only when the new or changed work is performed by a particular employee and not by increasing the rate for the classification as a whole.
(d) The time from which work value changes in an award should be measured is the date of operation of the second structural efficiency adjustment allowable under the August 1989 National Wage Case decision [Print H9100].
(e) Care should be exercised to ensure that changes which were or should have been taken into account in any previous work value adjustments or in a structural efficiency exercise are not included in any work evaluation under this Principle.
(f) Where the tests specified in (a) are met, an assessment will have to be made as to how that alteration should be measured in money terms. Such assessment will normally be based on the previous work requirements, the wage previously fixed for the work and the nature and extent of the change in work.
(g) The expression "the conditions under which the work is performed" relates to the environment in which the work is done.
(h) The Commission will guard against contrived classifications and over-classification of jobs.
(i) Any changes in the nature of the work, skill and responsibility required or the conditions under which the work is performed, taken into account in assessing an increase under any other principle of this Statement of Principles, will not be taken into account under this Principle.
In approving any application to reduce the standard hours to 38 per week, the Commission will satisfy itself that the cost impact is minimised.
In accordance with the Safety Net Review - Wages April 1998 decision [Print Q1998] minimum rates and paid rates awards may, on application, be varied to include an arbitrated safety net adjustment in this decision subject to the following:
(a) The operative date will be no earlier than the date of the variation to the award.
(b) At the time when the award is to be varied to insert the safety net adjustment, each union party to the award will be required to give a specific commitment as to the absorption of the increase. In particular, the union commitments will involve the acceptance of absorption of the safety net adjustment to the extent of any equivalent amount in rates of pay which are above the wage rates prescribed in the award. Such above award payments include wages payable pursuant to certified agreements, currently operating enterprise flexibility agreements, Australian workplace agreements, award variations to give effect to enterprise agreements and overaward arrangements. Absorption which is contrary to the terms of an agreement is not required.
(c) The following clause must be inserted in the award:
"The rates of pay in this award include the arbitrated safety net adjustment payable under the April 1997 and April 1998 Safety Net Review - Wages decisions [Prints P1997 and Q1998]. This arbitrated safety net adjustment may be offset against any equivalent amount in rates of pay received by employees whose wages and conditions of employment are regulated by this award which are above the wage rates prescribed in the award. Such above award payments include wages payable pursuant to certified agreements, currently operating enterprise flexibility agreements, Australian workplace agreements, award variations to give effect to enterprise agreements and overaward arrangements. Absorption which is contrary to the terms of an agreement is not required.
Increases made under previous National Wage Case principles or under the current Statement of Principles, excepting those resulting from enterprise agreements, are not to be used to offset arbitrated safety net adjustments."
The above clause will replace the offsetting clause inserted into awards pursuant to pararaph 3.2.6(c) of the Statement of Principles determined in the April 1997 Safety Net Review - Wages decision [Print P1997].
(d) The safety net adjustment will be added to the separate "arbitrated safety net amount" for each classification in the award. Where the minimum rates adjustment process in an award has been completed, the Commission may consider an application for the base rate, supplementary payment and arbitrated safety net adjustments to be combined so that the award specifies only the total minimum rate for each classification.
(e) By consent of all parties to an award, where the minimum rates adjustment has been completed, award rates may be expressed as hourly rates as well as weekly rates. In the absence of consent, a claim that award rates be so expressed may be determined by arbitration.
(f) The safety net adjustment will only be available where the rates in the award have not been increased, other than by safety net adjustments, or as a result of the application of the Minimum Rates Adjustment or Work Value Changes principles, since November 1991.
In accordance with the Safety Net Review - Wages April 1998 decision [Print Q1998] minimum rates and paid rates awards may, on application, be varied to provide for the federal minimum wage for full-time adult employees of $373.40 per week and, for junior, part-time and casual employees, proportionate amounts subject to the following:
(a) The operative date will be no earlier than the date of the variation to the award.
(b) The federal minimum wage is to be provided for in a separate clause as contained in the Textile Industry Award 1994 [Print P1741]. Where classification rates are below the federal minimum wage there should be an indication that the federal minimum wage applies to those classifications.
(c) The separate clause referred to in (b) is as follows:
"Federal Minimum Wage
1. The Federal Minimum Wage
No employee shall be paid less than the federal minimum wage.
2. Amount of Federal Adult Minimum Wage
(a) The federal minimum wage for full-time adult employees not covered by subclause (4) [special categories clause], is $373.40 per week.
(b) Adults employed under a supported wage clause shall continue to be entitled to receive the wage rate determined under that clause. Provided that such employees shall not be paid less than the amount determined by applying the percentage in the supported wage clause applicable to the employee concerned to the amount of the minimum wage specified in subclause 2(a).
(c) Adults employed as part-time or casual employees shall continue to be entitled to receive the wage rate determined under the casual and part-time clauses of the award. Provided that such employees shall not be paid less than pro rata the minimum wage specified in subclause 2(a) according to the number of hours worked.
3. How the Federal Minimum Wage Applies to Juniors
(a) The wage rates provided for juniors by this award continue to apply unless the amount determined under subclause 3(b) is greater.
(b) The federal minimum wage for an employee to whom a junior rate of pay applies is determined by applying the percentage in the junior wage rates clause applicable to the employee concerned to the relevant amount in subclause (2).
4. Application of Minimum Wage to Special Categories of Employee
(a) Due to the existing applicable award wage rates being greater than the relevant proportionate federal minimum wage, this clause has no application to employees undertaking a National Training Wage Traineeship, an Australian Traineeship, a Career Start Traineeship, a Jobskills placement or an apprenticeship.
(b) [Leave reserved for other special categories]
5. Application of Federal Minimum Wage to Award Rates Calculation
The federal minimum wage:
(a) applies to all work in ordinary hours;
(b) applies to the calculation of overtime and all other penalty rates, superannuation, payments during sick leave, long service leave and annual leave, and for all other purposes of this award; and
(c) is inclusive of the arbitrated safety net adjustment provided by the Safety Net Review - Wages April 1998 decision [Print Q1998] and all previous safety net and national wage adjustments."
(d) At the time when the award is to be varied to insert the federal minimum wage clause, each party to the award will be required to give a specific commitment as to absorption of any increase arising from the insertion of the federal minimum wage clause. In particular, the union commitments will involve the acceptance of absorption of any increase arising from the insertion of the federal minimum wage clause to the extent of any equivalent amount in rates of pay which are above the wage rates prescribed in the award. Such above award payments include wages payable pursuant to certified agreements, currently operating enterprise flexibility agreements, Australian workplace agreements, award variations to give effect to enterprise agreements and overaward arrangements. Absorption which is contrary to the terms of an agreement is not required.
(e) The following clause must be inserted into the award:
"The rates of pay in this award include the federal minimum wage payable under the Safety Net Review - Wages April 1998 decision. Any increase arising from the insertion of the federal minimum wage clause may be offset against any equivalent amount in rates of pay received by employees whose wages and conditions of employment are regulated by this award which are above the wage rates prescribed in the award. Such above award payments include wages payable pursuant to certified agreements, currently operating enterprise flexibility agreements, Australian workplace agreements, award variations to give effect to enterprise agreements and overaward arrangements. Absorption which is contrary to the terms of an agreement is not required.
Increases made under previous National Wage Case principles or under the current Statement of Principles, excepting those resulting from enterprise agreements, are not to be used to offset the federal minimum wage."
(f) Any disagreement as to the variation of an award to include the federal minimum wage (including whether the federal minimum wage should be phased-in) will be referred to the President for consideration as a special case.
(g) Federal minimum wage clauses may be inserted in awards in which the minimum classification rate exceeds $373.40.
Note: In determining whether an increase is payable because of the introduction of the federal minimum wage, the arbitrated safety net adjustment in this decision and all previous safety net and national wage adjustments are first to be taken into account.
An application to make or vary an award for wages or conditions above or below the safety net will be referred to the President for consideration as a special case.
Applications involving a consideration of s.89A(7) are subject to this Principle. Applications involving claims to incorporate agreements (expired or not) into awards (paid or minimum rates) ordinarily will not be considered to constitute a special case.
A party seeking a special case must make an application pursuant to s.107 supported by material justifying the matter being dealt with as a special case. It will then be a matter for the President to decide whether it is to be dealt with by a Full Bench.
Any first award or an extension to an existing award must be consistent with the Commission's obligations under Part VI of the Act.
In determining the content of a first award the Commission will have particular regard to:
(a) relevant minimum wage rates in other awards, provided the rates have been adjusted for previous National Wage Case decisions and are consistent with the decision of the August 1989 National Wage Case;
(b) the need for any alterations to wage relativities between awards to be based on skill, responsibility and the conditions under which the work is performed [s.88B(3)(a)];
(c) section 89A and the need to ensure that it does not contain provisions that are not either allowable award matters, or both incidental to allowable award matters and necessary for the effective operation of the award; and
(d) the award simplification criteria in s.143 of the Act.
Any respondent or group of respondents to an award may apply to, temporarily or otherwise, reduce, postpone and/or phase-in the application of any increase in labour costs determined under this Statement of Principles on the ground of very serious or extreme economic adversity. The merit of such application will be determined in the light of the particular circumstances of each case and any material relating thereto shall be rigorously tested. A party making such an application must make and justify an application pursuant to s.107. It will then be a matter for the President to decide whether it should be dealt with by a Full Bench.
Any decision to temporarily reduce or postpone an increase will be subject to a further review, the date of which will be determined by the Commission at the time it decides any application under this Principle.
This Statement of Principles will operate until reviewed.
ATTACHMENT B
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
This attachment deals with:
· Medium-term economic developments;
· Key economic indicators:
- employment and unemployment;
- wage movements;
- inflation;
- investment;
- profits;
- economic growth; and
· The immediate economic outlook.
1. Medium-Term Economic Developments
A medium-term perspective of Australia's economic performance was provided in notes of an 18 September 1997 address in Tokyo by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Mr Ian Macfarlane [Exhibit ACTU 3 at tab 9]. The assessment made by Mr Macfarlane is consistent with that emerging from the other materials in Exhibits ACTU 24 and ACTU 25, the Exhibit JG 1 and tab 11 of Exhibit ACCI 5.
In an assessment of the period 1991 to 1997, Mr Macfarlane noted:
· a reasonably good expansion in Australia reflected in annual average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth with quite a few years to run and the absence of the imbalances which usually curtail recovery;
· a relatively good (low) inflation level, at an annual average rate of 2.3% per annum with Australia participating fully in the low inflation world of the 1990s notwithstanding reasonable economic growth over the same period;
· strong productivity growth, with average productivity growth substantially improved from that experienced in previous growth phases in the Australian economy;
· success in the containment of the public sector deficit, with a deficit of 0.7% of GDP in 1997-98, a projected surplus in 1998-99, and deficits in earlier years not high by the standards of most Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries;
· an exchange rate characterised by cyclical movement around a basically flat trend; and
· a reduction in interest rates.
Against this, Mr Macfarlane, also noted:
· continuing high levels of unemployment, with Australia's described as average by world standards. Nonetheless unemployment had fallen from a peak of 11.2% in 1992 to 8.7% (at the time of the address);
· a continuing balance of payments deficit, but one which has been stable, oscillating between 3% and 6% of GDP over the past two decades; and
· a continuing high level of net foreign debt as a proportion of GDP, albeit flattening out from the mid 1970s following a significant increase in the early 1980s.
Mr Macfarlane later observed:
"This new found reputation for stability may surprise some people because there is still a tendency to read so much into the small month by month or quarter by quarter variation in economic statistics. But if we take a longer sweep we can see how many of the economic problems that used to concern us have now been eliminated or are at least under some reasonable sort of control. The headlines are no longer full of stories about the current account deficit or the level of foreign debt; the budget deficit is small; high inflation and its inevitable twin, high interest rates, no longer fill the pages. This does not mean, of course, that we have solved all our economic problems; but we have clearly narrowed them down." [Testimony of RBA Governor Mr Ian Macfarlane before House of Representatives Standing Committee on Financial Institutions and Public Administration; Exhibit ACTU 3 at tab 8]
A medium term assessment of other economic variables shows:
· company profits and profits as a share of GDP at high levels over the 1990s, recovering significantly from low levels recorded in the mid to the late 1970s and into the early 1980s;
· reasonable levels of international competitiveness, with improvement from the early 1980s; and
· strong growth in private sector investment since 1991.
In summary, Australia's economic performance over recent years has been characterised by:
· relatively good economic growth;
· high productivity growth by Australian standards;
· low inflation;
· strong business investment growth;
· falling unemployment (albeit unacceptably high);
· stability in Australia's external balance (albeit with a continuing deficit); and
· some degree of control over the Australian economy with the absence of imbalances.
2. Key Economic Indicators
Employment and Unemployment
Chart 1, drawn from ABS data in Exhibit ACCI 5, shows employment growth since March 1989.
Chart 1
The chart shows a significant decline in employment growth in the early 1990s, associated with weak economic activity followed by an improvement in employment growth in the mid 1990s, peaking in mid 1995. Thereafter employment growth weakened, with limited growth from the beginning of 1996 until a recent improvement in employment, from late 1997 into 1998.
Chart 2
Chart 2 shows significant growth in unemployment in the early 1990s, reflecting in part the reduced employment growth recorded in Chart 1 over the same period. The decline in unemployment was most pronounced over 1994 and 1995. Unemployment increased in 1996, into 1997, associated with weak growth in that period and its downward trend in the last half of 1997 into 1998.
Wage movements
Table 1 sets out date of wage and price movements from 1991-92 to the present.
Table 1: Annual Increase (% change on a year earlier) of wages and prices
AWOTE 1 |
Award rates2 |
CPI3 | ||
All Groups |
Underlying | |||
Annual |
||||
1991-2 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
1992-3 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
1993-4 |
3.1 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
1994-5 |
4.1 |
1.3 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
1995-6 |
4.5 |
2.0 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
1996-7 |
3.9 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
Quarterly |
||||
1996 Nov |
3.9 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1997 Feb |
4.0 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
May |
4.0 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
Aug |
4.0 |
n.p. |
-0.3 |
1.5 |
Nov |
3.9 |
n.p. |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
n.p. Not published (series discontinued)
1 Trend estimates for quarterly data. Source: ABS Cat No. 6301.0 and 6302.0.
2 Source: ABS Cat No. 6312.0.
3 Source: ABS Cat No. 6401.0, Treasury Economic Roundup.
Table 1 shows:
· average weekly ordinary time earnings (AWOTE) growth at or slightly below 4.5% over each of the last three years;
· a significant divergence between AWOTE and award rates in each of the years shown, with the divergence of 2% to 3% per annum in each of the last four years;
· the achievement of inflation outcomes within the range of 2% to 3% over six years (when considered on the basis of the underlying rate which removes abnormal items and the effect of mortgage interest rate changes); and
· real average earnings growth in each of the last four years. Real award rates have fallen in each of the past five years.
The divergence between AWOTE and award growth since 1992-93 requires some comment. Between 1992-93 and 1996-97 AWOTE growth, at 16.5% markedly exceeded growth in award rates of 6.0%. To the extent that growth in AWOTE, when compared with inflation, is a broad indicator of improvement in community living standards, it suggests that employees reliant on award rates of pay have not shared in that improvement.
The dispersion in earnings growth over a longer period is also reflected in a graph at tab 3 of Exhibit ACTU 3 reproduced on page 38.
Total earnings growth reflected in the AWOTE data in Table 1 is affected by compositional change, having the effect of overstating the wages growth recorded. This is accepted in the submission of the Joint Governments and in Treasury and RBA documents tendered.
The effect of compositional change is reflected in significantly faster public sector AWOTE growth (when compared to private sector AWOTE growth) from early 1996 (see chart 36; Exhibit JG 1) and is generally accepted as resulting in part from downsizing of the public sector which was disproportionately focussed on lower wage employees, thus increasing the average wage of remaining employees.
The ABS in both Cat No. 6301.0 and 6302.0 notes that:
"Movements in average weekly earnings can be affected by both changes in the level of earnings per employee and changes in the composition of the labour force. For example, changes in the proportion of full time, part time, casual and junior employees and variations of the distribution of occupations can affect movements in earnings series."
As noted in the submissions of the Joint Governments [Exhibit JG 1 at 173], while it is agreed that the earnings data are affected by compositional change, there is no agreement as to the size of the impact. The ACTU estimates an addition to AWOTE from compositional change of 1.2% p.a. from 1991 to 1996 [Exhibit ACTU 1 at tab 5, at 3]. The Joint Governments cite two ABS studies suggesting only a minor impact (D. Elazar and D. Lawrence. Effects of Labour Force Compositional Change or Average Earnings Series, unpublished mimeo 1993; and R. McKenzie. Compositional Change in the Australian Workforce, unpublished mimeo 1995). An analysis by the Economic Planning and Advisory Committee paper (EPAC, Future Labour Market Issues for Australia, Paper No. 12, July 1996) suggested that compositional change added around a percentage point, on average, to measured AWOTE growth.
The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has commenced a quarterly wages report which attempts to shed some light on the issue [Melbourne Institute Wages Report, Quarterly Report, February 1998 in Exhibit ACTU 29]. The purpose of the report is set out as follows:
"The purpose of the Melbourne Institute's Wages Report is to provide business, economists, policy makers and academics with up-to-date information on wage pressure in the economy. A drawback of the information on wages currently provided in the ABS's Average Weekly Earnings (AWE), for example, is that it is only published with a significant lag, with release figures typically being one quarter out-of date. Moreover, all other published wage series relate to earnings per person. However, numerous workplace changes (such as across occupations and industries) and changes in work arrangements, can lead to a change in average earnings, even if wage rates have not changed. Consequently, the Melbourne Institute Wages Report is a potentially valuable (as well as an additional) source of information on wage inflation."
The basis of the data produced is described thus:
". . . unlike other currently available sources, (namely the AWE), it directly estimates growth in rates of pay, and does so after purging the series of any pay increases due to changing positions, shifting samples, changes in the composition of the work-force; and so on."
It does so by sampling employees who had remained in the same job over the year in which wage movements are measured.
The February 1998 report notes that its series reveals relatively subdued wages growth over the past year. The Base Pay Indicator (excluding allowances, loading and additional hours) suggests wages growth fell from 1.8% in the year to August 1997 to 1.2% in the year to February. The Total Pay Indicator fell from 4.5% to 2.1% respectively.
It is not possible to draw firm conclusions as to the magnitude of the overstatement of earnings growth as reflected in AWOTE. Nonetheless having regard to all the material it is reasonable to accept that wages growth as shown by AWOTE data had been overstated by the effect of compositional change in recent years.
To the extent that AWOTE overstates wages growth, it follows that the level of wages growth is somewhat less than that shown in the AWOTE data, with recent wages growth being comfortably within the RBA comfort zone.
Data showing wage increases resulting from enterprise bargaining shed some light in the role of bargaining in the persistent gap between average earnings and award earnings. Such data is available from the Workplace Agreements Database of the Commonwealth Department of Workplace Relations and Small Business and is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Wage Increases Under Federal Awards
Quarter |
Private Sector Wage |
Public Sector Wage |
All Federal Wage |
|||||||||||||||||
Agreements |
Agreements |
Agreements | ||||||||||||||||||
No of |
Emp'ees |
AAWI |
No of |
Emp'ees |
AAWI |
No of |
Emp'ees |
AAWI | ||||||||||||
agents |
(000) |
per emp |
agents |
(000) |
per emp |
agents |
(000) |
per emp | ||||||||||||
% |
% |
% | ||||||||||||||||||
Sep 1996 |
828 |
105.8 |
5.3 |
163 |
56.4 |
4.0 |
991 |
162.2 |
4.8 |
|||||||||||
Dec 1996 |
901 |
167.3 |
4.4 |
73 |
11.3 |
4.3 |
974 |
178.6 |
4.4 | |||||||||||
Mar 1997 |
806 |
54.5 |
4.7 |
73 |
19.0 |
4.3 |
879 |
73.5 |
4.6 | |||||||||||
Jun 1997 |
828 |
77.5 |
4.8 |
121 |
59.4 |
4.8 |
949 |
136.9 |
4.8 | |||||||||||
Sep 1997 |
1440 |
119.9 |
4.4 |
189 |
40.8 |
4.9 |
1629 |
160.7 |
4.6 |
Note: Agreement and employee estimates are for all federal wage agreements in the period.
Estimates of average annualised wage increases (AAWI) are based on quantifiable wage increases.
Source: Department of Workplace Relations and Small Business, Wage Trends in Enterprise Bargaining [Exhibit JG 1 at Table 3.2].
In considering Table 2, it should be remembered that:
· the increases are forward indicators of wage trends because the increases agreed are realised over the period of the agreements;
· the information relates only to agreements certified under the federal Act; and
· the increases shown are averages, with information provided by the Joint Governments in Exhibit JG 1 suggesting a considerable diversity in bargaining outcomes.
Table 2 shows:
· some moderation in the average level of increases agreed in bargaining in the private sector over the past year, but increased outcomes in the public sector agreements;
· on average, overall bargaining outcomes have been consistently around 4.5% over the past year, masking the different pattern as between the public and private sectors; and
· the latest, 4.6% total average increase recorded in the September quarter 1997, is the first decline in the series since the December quarter 1996.
The moderation in private sector bargaining outcomes evidenced over the last year from Table 2 is supported by the private sector AWOTE data in Table 1 and the Melbourne Institute data.
It is also supported by an assessment in tab 26 of Exhibit ACTU 27 [Prospects in the Agreement Sector, John Buchanan, Australian Centre for Industrial Relations Research and Training, University of Sydney, Wages 98, 14 November 1997], which in assessing the outlook for 1998 suggests that wages claims are coming down and that the "hottest" sections were settled in 1997.
The outlook for reduced levels of wage outcomes from bargaining suggested by Buchanan has been reinforced by official data released since we reserved our decision. They show wage increases from bargaining of 4.1% in the December quarter 1997, down from 4.6% in the September quarter 1997 as shown in Table 2 above.
Inflation
Chart 3
Chart 3 shows inflation on a financial year basis. It shows that, when abnormal and mortgage rate effects are removed, inflation has settled within the RBA target range of 2-3% over the past 6 years.
Chart 4
Chart 4 shows the same data as Chart 3, on a quarterly basis, over the past three years. It shows negative annual inflation in the second half of 1997, with interest rate reductions being a significant factor. The underlying rate has continued to fall consistently since mid 1996, showing that not only has Australia enjoyed a long period of low inflation but the inflation has continued to fall over the past two years to the lowest level ever recorded at 1.4% over the year to the December quarter 1997.
Productivity
Chart 5
Chart 5 sets out annual labour productivity growth, measured as market Sector Gross Product per hour worked. Australia's relatively strong productivity performance in the current expansion phase is confirmed by an assessment contained in the RBA, Semi-Annual Statement of Monetary Policy (6 November 1997) [Exhibit ACTU 1, tendered as tab 7]. The RBA provides the following comparison of productivity growth over each of the last three expansion phases of the Australian economy:
Table 3: Comparison of Three Expansions
Annual percentage growth in: | ||||||||||
Period (a) Factor |
Trend Labour Productivity(b)(c) |
Capital |
Labour Stock |
Trend Hours Total-worked | ||||||
Mar 1975-Mar 1981 |
2.1 |
3.6 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
||||||
Mar 1983-Mar 1989 |
0.7 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
0.8 | ||||||
Jun 1991-Jun 1997 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
(a) Each period extends for six years from a trough in non-farm output.
(b) Calculated by fitting a trend through the quarterly estimates of the level of labour (or total-factor) productivity.
(c) Estimated from labour productivity growth assuming a standard production function with capital and labour inputs.
Profits
Chart 6
Chart 6 shows continuing high levels of company profits, notwithstanding some decline since 1994-95. Chart 7, shows a similar pattern for the profits as a share of national income, with a relatively high profit share being sustained over the whole of the 1990s.
Chart 7
Investment
Chart 8
Chart 8 shows strong and continuing growth in private sector investment since 1992. The same picture is evident in Chart 9, Private Sector investment as a proportion of GDP, notwithstanding a dip over the course of 1995.
Chart 9
Economic Growth
Chart 10
Chart 10 shows a period of healthy economic growth (shown as quarterly growth in gross non-farm product at constant prices) since 1991, notwithstanding a moderation in growth to less acceptable levels during 1996 and into the first half of 1997. It confirms the resumption of stronger growth over the last half of 1997. (December quarter 1997 data was released on 4 March 1998, after our decision was reserved. It shows trend GDP growth of 3.7% in the year to the December quarter 1997.)
3. The Immediate Economic Outlook
We were assisted in assessing the immediate economic outlook by the submissions of the parties and official projections provided in the form of:
· RBA Semi-Annual Statement on Monetary Policy, 6 November 1997 [Exhibit ACTU 1 at tab 7]; and
· the Treasury Mid-Year Economic and Fixed Outlook [Exhibit ACTU 27 at tab 21].
In addition, survey material was provided in the form of:
· the Age Survey of Economists, 2 January 1988 [Exhibit ACTU R27 at tab 22], a range of industry association membership surveys [Exhibit ACCI 5 at tab 10; Exhibit P1 at tab 1; Exhibit W1 at Annexures A to E] and an economic assessment in Annexure A of Exhibit W1 (the submissions of the Joint Employers).
But for the potential impact of the Asian economic crisis and particular sectoral pressures, the general economic picture is of a continuation of Australia's recent good economic performance with continuing strong growth, further inroads into unemployment and continuing moderate inflation outcomes.
The shorter-term outlook reflected in the Treasury Mid-term Review published on 18 December 1997 is reflected in Table 4 below.
Table 4: Economic Outlook for 1997-98(a)
Major observations arising from the mid-term assessment are:
1. A weakening of international demand, with strong growth in the United States, the United Kingdom and continental Europe more than offset by slower than expected growth in Japan and a deterioration in growth of several East Asian countries.
2. Some growth in the inflation outlook for Australia's major trading partners.
3. A strengthening of economic growth in 1997-98. Both the Budget forecast and the mid-term forecast show anticipated growth of 3% to 4% in 1997-98. This reflects stronger domestic demand (consumption and investment) offset by the impact of a weaker international environment.
4. Strong consumption growth, underpinned by solid growth in real household disposable income. The strength of private investment activity is being sustained, "by a number of favourable fundamentals, namely, a high corporate profit share, a high new rate of return on capital stock, relatively high surveyed rate of capacity utilisation, and low nominal interest rates" [Exhibit JG 1 at 26].
The most recent investment expectations data remains positive notwithstanding developments in Asia.
5. Wages growth is expected to continue strongly, slightly higher than expected at Budget time but with some moderation from 1996-97. Treasury expects that continued low inflation and low inflation expectations should help contain wage pressures.
6. Employment growth is expected to pick up during 1997-98 in response to recent trends in output and real wages. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to around 8% by the June quarter 1998, unchanged from the Budget forecast.
7. Underlying inflation should remain low, edging up to 1 3/4% by the June quarter 1998, lower than the Budget forecast.
8. The current account is expected to grow over that recorded in 1996-97, largely due to abnormal influences on the 1996-97 outcome and measurement changes. Abstracting from those factors, the effect of lower than expected net export volumes in 1997-98 is likely to be broadly offset by stronger than expected growth in the terms of trade.
The Treasury Mid-Term Review also provides limited forecasts for 1998-99 as follows:
1998-99 | ||||
Real GDP |
3 ¼ |
|||
Employment growth |
2 ¼ | |||
Wages growth |
4 | |||
Headline CPI |
2 ½ | |||
Underlying CPI |
2 ½ |
Growth in GDP is forecast to weaken in 1998-99, reflecting slow growth in international demand reflecting Asian developments in particular and easing in public final demand and trends in stocks, offset by ongoing stimulus to private domestic demand. The forecast reflects a view that the effect of the East Asian financial situation will be more pronounced in 1998-99. Without it, growth in Australia would be significantly stronger in 1998-99.
Weaker growth is forecast to result in weaker employment growth later in 1998-99.
Wage pressures are forecast to remain broadly unchanged in 1998-99, reflecting a stable labour market outlook and continued low inflation. Inflation is expected to increase slightly as a result of labour productivity growth easing toward more normal structural levels. The Joint Governments suggested that such a slowing in productivity would reflect the second stage of a growth cycle in which growth is reflected in greater employment growth and a slowing of productivity. They submitted that strong employment growth in the second half of 1997 suggests that this point of the cycle has been reached [Exhibit JG 6 at Attachment C]. Against this, however, it should be noted that economic growth itself accelerated in the last half of 1997.
There is some uncertainty in the inflation outlook associated with possible price effects of $A depreciation in early 1998.
ATTACHMENT C
This attachment considers the submissions put on the employment effects of a safety net increase. Some of the submissions relied on studies put to the April 1997 hearing. These studies were considered in Attachment G to the majority decision and section 5.36 of the minority decision.
The issue can be considered at two levels:
(a) the micro-economic effects reflecting:
· the proposition that a higher general level of real wages tends to reduce the level of economic activity and, for any given level of activity, to reduce the quantity of labour employed;
· the prospect of action taken by monetary and fiscal authorities to dampen economic activity in the face of higher than desired wages growth and potential inflationary effects, with adverse employment consequences; and
(b) the macro-economic effects, reflecting the proposition that wage increases which impose or accentuate a pattern of wage relativities different from those which would emerge from the market, will cause structural unemployment. The relative price (wage) effect of minimum wage increases would adversely affect the employment prospects of employees subject only to award rates of pay.
We were confronted with significantly different assessments of the economic impact of the ACTU wage claim. The ACTU submitted in relation to macro-economic effects:
"Nevertheless, there has been no suggestion that our claims in this case (or, for that matter, the ambient level of settlements being achieved through bargaining) are of such magnitude as would cause a dramatic shift in factor shares back towards the levels prevailing twenty years ago. Measured productivity is high. The effect of success of our claims on the economy-wide average level of wages will be small as our costings show, and in any event so far as macro-economic impact of our claims on employment is concerned, the relevant elasticities are those for minimum not average wages.
In our submission, the likely direct macro-economic implications for employment, deriving from success of our claims in this case, are negligible." [Exhibit ACTU 25 at 25]
In relation to the micro-economic effects it submitted:
"We submit that the living wage application will provide a moderate sustainable wage increase to low paid workers which will boost their incomes, the household income of their families, and their living standards. On the evidence provided, the application will not have any adverse impact on the employment prospects of low paid workers." [Exhibit ACTU 25 at 117]
The Joint Governments submitted:
"In the Joint Governments' view, granting the ACTU claim would significantly hinder further progress in reducing unemployment in Australia. Evidence from Australian research reinforces our concerns. The Australian studies suggest that a 1 per cent rise in real wages in Australia leads to a 0.6 to 0.8 per cent decrease in employment for a given level of output. In fact, as we have argued, the relationship for award workers is probably stronger as they have less skills, on average, than employees in general. Most minimum wage studies, with the notable exception of the `natural experiment' studies of Card and Krueger, also suggest an inverse relationship between award wages and employment. However, as we have argued these studies are not directly relevant to Australia because of the significantly higher level at which award wages are set in Australia compared to US minimum wages." [Exhibit JG 1 at 168]
ACCI focussed on the likely impact of RBA intervention in the face of wage pressures, which it argued would result from the granting of the ACTU wage claim. It submitted:
"To grant the ACTU claim would invite Reserve Bank intervention. What we are thus looking at is the potential for two forces to be moving in opposite directions: an adjustment in wages which would create inflationary pressures moving in one direction while in the other direction an increase in interest rates whose aim would be to maintain inflation within the target range.
The reduction in interest rates has already improved living standards. It has brought down the cost of financing a mortgage as well as the cost of other forms of consumer finance. Lower interest rates, by lowering business costs, have also helped to keep prices down. Granting the ACTU claim would reverse all of these trends and put upwards pressure back on to interest rates.
The effect of higher interest rates on economic activity and the level of the employment should be all too vivid to really need much discussion. Both in 1989-90 and again in 1994, increases in interest rates have lead to increases in the unemployment rate. On both occasions the aim of the Reserve Bank was to lower the rate of inflation which was being pressed upwards by wage settlements. Wages were not the only inflationary factors on either occasion, but they were certainly important considerations in the mind of the Reserve Bank." [Exhibit ACCI 5 at 41-42]
The ACTU submitted that the effects of its claim on aggregate employment, arising from macro-economic effects, would be negligible. It submitted that, in the absence of an imbalance in factor shares or real unit labour costs, safety net increases involving moderate aggregate costs effects, such as those which it submitted would arise from its claim, would have negligible employment effects. It further submitted that the benefit of safety net increases, directed predominantly to the low paid, would result in positive employment effects due to the higher than average proportionate expenditure of income by the low paid, with a consequent positive effect on economic activity.
As noted above, ACCI focussed its submissions on this matter on the reduction in economic activity which would follow a correction in monetary policy in response to wages (and inflationary) pressures said to be associated with the ACTU claim.
The Joint Governments submitted that wage increases can have direct and indirect effects on employment. The direct effect was said to result from a response by business to increased unit labour costs by cutting costs and by shedding employees (or employing fewer new employees than would otherwise be employed) - a substitution of capital for labour. The indirect effect was said to result from the inflationary effect of wage increases which would be met by a monetary policy response, with higher interest rates (or rates higher than they would otherwise be) curtailing economic activity and employment.
In respect of the latter effect, the ACTU submitted that the moderate cost impact of its claim would have a marginal effect on monetary policy settings in the context the range of determinants of interest rates; that is, for example:
· the exchange rate;
· economic activity;
· interest rates in other countries;
· the balance of payments;
· the level of investment; and
· market considerations.
The Joint Governments relied on the Treasury macro-economic model (TRYM) to assess the employment (and other effects) of the ACTU claim, utilising aggregate wage cost growth derived from its Safety Net Increase (SNI) costing methodology. The TRYM model produced outputs under two scenarios:
(i) in the absence of monetary and fiscal policy responses to higher inflation resulting from aggregate wages growth; and
(ii) where monetary and fiscal policy is adjusted to reduce the inflationary impact, based on "policy reactions in the model (which) are arbitrary. They are a highly simplified representation of possible policy formation. They do not necessarily represent how policy makers would, or should, act." [Exhibit JG 1 at 126]
The TRYM model output suggested that the ACTU claim would lead to the following addition to unemployment.
1988-99 |
1999-2000 | |||
Both stages |
Stage 1 only |
Both stages |
Stage 1 only | |
Without assumed monetary/fiscal policy response |
- |
- |
1/4 |
1/4 |
With assumed monetary/fiscal policy response |
1/4 |
1/4 |
3/4 |
1/4 |
The ACTU criticised the TRYM modelling results for several reasons, including that:
· there is no explanation of the TRYM model;
· the model incorporates policy responses which the Joint Governments concede do not necessarily reflect how policy makers would or should act;
· the model assumes a wage price "treadmill", contrary to the evidence of limited indirect effects of safety net adjustments;
· the Joint Governments feed in safety net increases, front loaded, notwithstanding evidence of a spread of increases in relation to the April 1997 increases. The Joint Governments' approach would maximise the effect of the assumed wages - prices "treadmill"; and
· the model assumes a 0.7% to 0.8% reduction in employment associated with a 1% wage increase relying on aggregate wages elasticities which are not supported by recent evidence. The model shows job losses because it assumes them.
In our view, limited reliance can be placed on the outcomes from the TRYM model. Models such as TRYM reflect a theoretical basis which is subject to assumptions. The operation of the model was not explained to us. The underlying assumptions were not detailed. We were unable to deduce what model impacts arise from the assumptions which underlie the model. Further, it appears from the Joint Governments' material that much of the employment impact arises from the assumed monetary and fiscal policy response. Little weight can be placed on outcomes generated largely from assumed policy responses which the Joint Governments concede do not necessarily reflect how policy makers would or should act.
The Joint Governments put forward various aggregate wages studies, measuring the impact on employment of real wage movements (or Real Unit Labour Costs (RULC) movements - real wages adjusted for productivity growth) in Chapter 9 of Exhibit JG 1, ostensibly to shed light on the effects of relative wage movements associated with safety net adjustments. They did so on the basis that Australia has a structure of minimum award rates rather than a single minimum wage.
Such studies are not directed to the relative wage effects of safety net adjustments, but to the macro-economic effect of wage movements which alter real wages or RULC movements. In our view, they carry little weight in assessing the micro-economic effect of safety net adjustments, particularly in the modern Australian bargaining context in which safety net adjustments are a minor determinant of aggregate wages growth.
They may however shed light on the macro-economic effect of safety net increases.
The Joint Governments relied on an OECD Jobs Study. The OECD Jobs Study: Evidence and Explanations. Part II - the Adjustment Potential of the Labour Market, Paris (1994) which shows wage elasticities generated through econometric analysis of the responsiveness of unemployment to real wages. The study estimates that a 1% increase in real wages will lead to a 0.5% fall in private sector employment in Canada and a 1% fall in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Australia.
An assessment of the OECD study and later OECD analysis is contained in Attachment G to the majority decision of April 1997. The 1997 OECD Employment Outlook concluded that:
"Countries with more deregulated labour product markets do not appear to have higher relative mobility, nor do low paid workers in these economies experience more upward mobility."
The Joint Governments also relied on a range of Australian studies which address the effect of real wages growth (and RULC) on employment levels. [P.E.T. Lewis. Substitution Between Young Adult Workers in Australia. Australian Economic Papers, Vol 24, No. 44, 1985; B. Russell and W. Tease. Employment, Output and Real Wages. Economic Record, Vol 67, No. 196, 1991; P.E.T. Lewis and M.G. Kirby. A New Approach to Modelling the Effects of Income Policies. Economic letters, No. 28, 1988; C. Pissarides. Real Wages and Employment Growth in Australia. Discussion Paper No. 286, Centre for Labour Economics, London School of Economics, 1987; and Committee on Employment Opportunities 1993. Restoring Full Employment: A Discussion Paper, AGPS Canberra].
The Joint Governments relied on these studies to conclude that a 1% increase in real wages would reduce employment by between 0.6% and 0.8%. They cited the comment in the Committee on Employment Opportunities 1993 Green Paper that:
"There is now a widespread acceptance that the experience of the last twenty years has demonstrated that employment is sensitive to real wages. The consensus is that for Australia a reduction of one percent in the level of real wages would have a direct effect on employment over time of around three-quarters of one percent." [p.31]
Most of the studies cited by the Joint Governments, and further studies cited within them, related to the 1970s and 1980s. The reference period encompassed within the studies involved very significant changes in real wages and RULCs. This is evident from Figure 1.9 in the Green Paper and the Russell/Tease Paper which noted:
· a 10 1/2% increase in real wages and 7% RULC growth between December 1973 and March 1975;
· a RULC increase of 5 3/4% in the year to September 1982; and
· real wage reductions of 5% and a RULC reduction of 10% in the five years to 1987-88.
Further, the earlier periods in the studies reflected major imbalances - factor share imbalances and real wage "overhang" - associated with the marked increase in real wages.
This raises a question as to the applicability of the results of studies undertaken in the context of very significant real wage and RULC movements to an assessment of the macro-economic effect of moderate safety net adjustments, which have an extremely limited impact of aggregate wages growth and, to the extent that some of the increase is reflected in inflation, lesser changes in RULCs. The need for caution in relation to elasticities derived from studies based on wages developments which reflect major real wages and RULC shocks arises out of observations by Russell and Tease in their paper. At page 37 they note that considerable debate occurred in relation to the impact of real wage growth on employment immediately following the significant fall in employment in 1974-75 but that the debate was inconclusive. They noted that:
"The issue was clouded by the lack of definitive empirical evidence at the time. This was probably due to the lack of substantial variation in real wages prior to 1973. Initially many studies failed to find a significant role for real wages in labour demand decisions."
Conclusion on Macro-Economic Effects
For the reasons stated above we were not greatly assisted by the outcomes derived from the TRYM model.
There is a range of studies, in an Australian context, which suggests a 0.6% to 0.8% reduction in employment associated with a 1% increase in real wages. However, these studies are dated and generally reflect a period of time in which significant real wage and RULC movements occurred. Caution is required in relying on such studies to measure the effect on employment of aggregate wages growth resulting from moderate safety net adjustments. Such adjustments would have a limited effect on aggregate wages growth and a still lesser real wage effect.
A real wage increase would have a tendency to adversely affect employment. There could be little dispute that significant real wage increases would contribute to lesser employment outcomes. However, it is not clear that moderate increases would have the same effect, proportionately, on employment as would significant increases in aggregate wages. An increase in the overall level of real wages may have an employment cost, but the extent of any such effect will depend on the prevailing economic circumstances and the extent of the increase.
Moderate safety net adjustments would result in limited aggregate wages growth and lesser growth in real wages. In the context of an existing "pipeline" effect of the April 1997 safety net adjustments, moderate safety net adjustments would not significantly affect employment levels.
We are not of the view that a moderate safety net increase would have a significant impact on monetary policy settings, given the range of factors influencing these settings.
Micro-Economic Effects
The micro-economic, or relative wage effects, of adjustments to minimum award wages involves a debate in which various theoretical constructs are advanced. These are dealt with in brief terms in Exhibit JG 1 at pages 149 to 151. The orthodox theory, which suggests adverse employment effects of minimum wage increases in respect of the intended beneficiaries, relies on the proposition that raising the wages of the low paid reduces their employment prospects. This proposition arises out of neoclassical theory of the demand for labour which suggests that the labour market, like most other markets, has a downward sloping demand curve. As a result, if there is an excess supply on labour the remedy is to reduce the price (or wage rate).
The assumptions underlying this theoretical approach were discussed by Emeritus Professor Nevile, in his written submission to the April 1997 case as follows:
"To summarise, while neoclassical theory predicts raising minimum wage rates will reduce employment, this prediction rests on assumptions that have been widely challenged. Many observed aspects of the labour market are inconsistent with the assumption of perfect competition underlying neoclassical theory. Apparently identical workers are paid at markedly different wage rates. Implicit or explicit long term contracts are widespread. There are significant transaction costs in hiring and firing. Morale is important and workers may perform better just because wage rates are increased, and so on. In addition feedbacks from other markets are important and are not always easy to predict. The theory is such that it does not produce a convincing case of any stand on the issue except agnosticism. Hence empirical studies are all important.
One final point about the neoclassical theory of labour demand, which also highlights the need for empirical results. Even if one takes neoclassical theory at face value, it only indicates that raising wage rates will reduce employment; it does not predict how important this will be. The practical importance of the theory depends on the slope of the demand curve for labour. If a rise in the minimum wage causes a large fall in employment this is far more serious than if it only causes a very small fall in employment." [Nevile J.W. (1996), Minimum Wages, Equity and Unemployment - A Submission in the `Living Wage' Case, at 11-12.]
In the April 1997 case the parties referred to a range of empirical studies which attempted to quantify the economic effects of minimum wage increases having regard to relative wage changes. The parties relied on, and supplemented, that material in the present proceedings.
In the April 1997 decision the import of the material relied upon was referred to in Attachment G to the majority decision and on pages 78 to 88 of the minority decision.
On the basis of that material, the majority concluded, at page 28 of Attachment G:
"On the other hand, the material which we review in Attachment G gives ground for considerable doubt about the micro-economic gain from leaving the relative position of the low paid to `the market'. Indeed, our assessment of the debate reported in Attachment G is that moderate increases in the wages of the low paid, of themselves, do little or nothing to diminish their job prospects. Increasing award wages at all levels by 8.75 per cent, however, would alter, to a significant degree, the position of one group - award dependent employees - relative to that of employees who have benefited from agreements. The micro-economic effects of a change of that dimension (with wage increases under the Metal Industry Award, for example, ranging from $30.60 to $78.70 per week might be small; but they might not be. A measure of caution seems appropriate."
At page 88 Ross VP concluded:
"In my view the material before the Commission on the relative wages effect supports a conclusion that, at most, very limited adverse employment effects would result from the level of adjustment I would have awarded."
Our own consideration of the material relied upon in the April 1997 case, and in the current proceedings, leads us to a similar conclusion. Our assessment of the material is that a moderate increase in wages of the low paid would have, at most, very limited adverse employment effects. In the context of continuing unacceptably high levels of unemployment, however, we share the view of the majority that a measure of caution is required in considering the level of any safety net adjustment.
The orthodox theoretical approach has been questioned by empirical studies. It is ultimately necessary to consider the empirical evidence in assessing the practical effect of minimum wage adjustments on employment. As Freeman notes:
"Only careful empirical evidence can determine the magnitude of the employment responses to the minimum wage." [Freeman R. (1995), Comment for the Review Symposium of Myth and Measurement, Industrial and Labour Relations Review, Vol 48, No. 4, July at 831]
The ACTU commenced its submissions on micro-economic employment effects from the basis of the conclusions reached in the majority decision in April 1997 case, that "moderate increases in the wages of the low paid, of themselves, do little or nothing to diminish their job prospects" [Print P1997 at 28]. It submitted that the conclusion is strengthened by evidence which has subsequently become available:
1. Bernstein J., and Schmitt J. The Sky Hasn't Fallen - An Evaluation of the Minimum Wage (1997), in which an assessment of the impact of federal minimum wage rises in the United States was undertaken. The authors concluded that, at least in the first six months:
". . . that the minimum wage increase had no significant effect on the employment of teens or young adults, one way or the other . . ." [p.6]
2. Bernstein J. America's Well - Targeted Raise [EPI Issues Brief, number 1.8, September 1997] Bernstein notes:
"The minimum wage has historically played an important role in raising the earnings of low-wage workers. Unfortunately, the policy debate over the issue has focussed almost exclusively on the risk of job loss, despite the fact that recent literature demonstrates that such `disemployment effects' are either non existent or negligible." [p.2]
3. New research undertaken by Card and Krueger using new data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, in lieu of their own telephone survey data, to replicate their analysis of the effect of minimum wage increases on employment in the fast food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. [The earlier research in Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage; D. Card and A.B. Krueger; Princeton University Press (1995), were considered in the April 1997 Safety Net Review decision]. Card and Krueger, in their new paper released on 18 December 1997 [D. Card and A. Krueger: A Reanalysis of the Effects of the New Jersey Minimum Wage Increase on the Fast Food Industry with Representative Payroll Data Working Paper No. 339 Industrial Relations Section, Princeton University, December 1997] conclude:
"The increase in New Jersey's minimum wage probably had no effect on total employment in New Jersey's fast-food industry, and possibly had a small positive effect. We have previously written that, because of frictions in the labour market, a minimum wage increase can be expected to cause some firms to reduce employment and others to raise employment, with these two effects potentially cancelling out if the rise in the minimum wage is modest (Card and Krueger, 1995, esp. pp. 13-14). If this view is correct, then it would not be surprising to find some specifications and data definitions that yield a negative impact of the minimum wage on employment. But we doubt that a representative survey of fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania would show a significant adverse impact of the minimum wage on total employment.
The only data set that indicates a significant decline in employment in New Jersey relative to Pennsylvania is the small, non-random group of restaurants collected by Berman. Results of this data set stand in contrast to our survey data, to the BLS's payroll data, and to the supplemental data collected by Neumark and Wascher. The difference between the New Jersey-Pennsylvania comparison in our original survey and BNW's data cannot be reconciled by inherent differences between a telephone survey and administrative payroll records because the BLS ES-202 data are based on administrative payroll records. Instead, we suspect the common denominator is that representative surveys indicate statistically insignificant and small differences in employment growth between New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, while the non-representative data informally collected for Berman produce anomalous results.
An alternative interpretation of the full spectrum of results is that the New Jersey minimum wage increase did not reduce total employment, but it did reduce the average number of hours worked per employee. Neumark and Wascher (1997) reject this interpretation. Although we are less quick to rule out this possibility, we are agnostic about any conclusion concerning average hours worked per employee that relies so heavily on the informally collected Berman sample, and the exclusion of controls for pay periods. Moreover, within New Jersey the BNW data indicate that hours grew more at restaurants in the lowest wage areas of the state, where the minimum wage increase was more likely to be a binding constraint. This finding runs counter to the view that total hours declined in response to the New Jersey minimum wage increase." [Card and Krueger (1997), at 30-31 (emphasis in original)]
4. A paper by D. Peetz [The Safety Net and the Rule of the Australian Industrial Relations Commission presented to Economics and Industrial Relations; Reappraising the Relationship Conference in Honour of Professor Emeritus Joe Isaac, ANU December 1997] Peetz drew on AWIRS 95 data to reach the conclusions that:
"Low wage workplaces have greater difficulty in recruiting employees, and face higher labour turnover, than do higher wage workplaces . . ." [Table 1 at 7]; and
". . . low wage workplaces without recent agreements that paid the SNA (and were unable to absorb it into overaward) reported employment growth in the year to 1995-6 that was as high, or even slightly higher than, growth amongst low wage workplaces without agreements that did not pay the SNA."
5. A paper by Dr L. Cameron [Minimum Wage Policy: Economic Society Refresher Course 1998] which examines the recent theoretical and empirical debate in relation to the employment effects of minimum wage increases. The paper considers the Card/Krueger studies, and criticisms of their initial study. It also considers Canadian and United Kingdom studies.
Following her assessment of the empirical data, Dr Cameron concludes:
"While the recent findings of micro-level studies are certainly puzzling and deserve further investigation they have made one thing clear: we are a long way from confirming that employment is responsive to moderate changes in the minimum wage and no credible studies conclude that employment is highly responsive. These findings have implications for policies that advocate decreasing minimum wage rates as a solution to unemployment. Decreasing the minimum wage, especially at a time when high wage earners are experiencing record pay increases, has potentially dramatic consequences for social cohesion, crime and basic living conditions. As a result one would want to be highly confident of the benefits of such an approach. Given the comprehension survey evidence on this issue to date, especially given the lack of knowledge of the Australian situation, I believe that this confidence is found to be wanting."
The Commonwealth summarised the evidence as follows:
"International studies examining the relationship between minimum wages and employment falls into two categories `a time series' studies and `natural experiment' studies. Time series studies generally find an inverse relationship between minimum wages and employment, although more recent studies suggest that the relationship is becoming weaker. The evidence from `natural experiments' is more mixed, with Card and Krueger finding a negligible or even positive relationship between employment and the minimum wage in the US fast food industry whilst other researchers such as Neumark and Wascher have been more definite in finding a negative relationship." [Exhibit JG 1 at 155]
The Joint Governments drew attention to two studies by Brown, Gilroy and Kohen [C. Brown, C. Gilroy and A. Kohen, The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment, Journal of Economic Literature Vo1 20 June 1982 and C. Brown, C. Gilroy and A. Kohen, Time Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment, Journal of Human Resources, Vo1 18, Winter 1983]. They show a 1% to 3% reduction in teenage employment associated with a 10% increase in the US minimum wage.
They note, however, that more recent US studies point to a decline in the inverse relationship between minimum wages and employment. [D. Luskin, Time - Series Studies of Teenage Employment. What do they show? Paper contributed to 15th Conference of Economists, Monash University, August 1986; A. Wellington, Effects of the Minimum Wage of the Employment Status of Youths: An update. The Journal of Human Resources Vol. 26, Winter 1990.]
Luskin extended the Brown et al. study to include data from 1980-84. He found no clear relationship between the minimum wage and teenage employment. Wellington extended the Brown et al. data to 1986. He found that a 10% increase in the minimum wage reduced teenage employment by 0.6% but had no impact on the employment status of young adults.
The Joint Governments noted a similar situation in the UK and Canada, with an earlier study showing a conventional negative relationship between minimum wages and employment but with recent studies finding that the erosion of the UK Wage Council minimum rates had not increased employment [Brazen cited in S. Fernie and D. Metcalf, Low Pay and Minimum Wages, the British Evidence, Centre for Economic Performance Special Reports, London 1996; S. Machin and A. Manning, The Effects of Minimum Wages on Wage Dispersion and Employment: Evidence from the UK Wages Councils, Industrial and Labour Relations Review, Vol. 47 No. 3, 1994; W.C. Riddell, Work and Pay. The Canadian Labour Market, University of Toronto Press, Toronto 1985; J.S. Kan and S. Sharir, Minimum Wage and Probability-of-getting-a-job. Effects in a Simultaneous Equations Model of Employment and Participation, Canada 1975-1991, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 46, No. 1 1996.]
The Joint Governments submitted that the absence of a negative effect on employment associated with minimum wage increases reflected a reduced "bite" of minimum wages in the US and UK in recent years, resulting from a fall in level of minimum wages relative to wages generally. [D.S. Hamermesh, Labour Demand, Princeton University Press, Princeton 1993.]
The Joint Governments again brought to the Commission's attention criticisms at the Card/Kreuger first study of the fast food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. [Hamermesh op. cit., F. Welch. Comment in the Review Symposium of Myth and Measurement, Industrial and Labour Relations Review, Vol. 48, No. 4, July 1995; Neumark and Wascher in A. Selzer, An evaluation of the International Evidence on the Employment Effects of Minimum Wage Legislation, The Australian Economic Review, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1997]
Criticisms of Card and Krueger's initial study relate to:
· its data source: (telephone surveys);
· the possibility that the minimum wage increase was legislated in New Jersey but not in Pennsylvania because of stronger economic conditions in the former;
· the possible influence of timing factors on the study; and
· the absence of a theoretical model which would explain the empirical results.
The criticisms relating to their original data source are addressed by Card and Kreuger through their 1997 paper, utilising US Bureau of Labour Statistics data. Further criticisms are addressed by Cameron (at 5-6). Cameron also advances a series of alternative theoretical models which support the Card and Krueger findings (at 7-10).
The Joint Governments also submitted that the international studies relied on by the ACTU could not be translated to Australia due to the reduced "bite" of minimum wage increases in the US and the UK, reflecting low minimum rates when compared to wage rates generally than in Australia. They noted that Card and Krueger themselves are cautious about extrapolating their US results to countries with relatively high minimum wage levels:
"In the diverse set of policy experiments . . . we find no evidence for a large, negative employment effect of higher minimum wages. Even in the earlier literature, however, the magnitude of the predicted employment losses associated with the typical increase in the minimum wage are relatively small. This is not to say that the employment losses from much higher wages would be small: the evidence at hand is relevant only for a moderate range of minimum wages, such as those that prevailed in the US labour market in the past few decades." [Card and Kreuger; Myth and Measurement at 241]
The ACTU, on the other hand submitted, that the relationship shown in relation to the US was confirmed by Card and Krueger's assessment of other countries subject to a greater minimum wage "bite", particularly Puerto Rico.
Conclusion on Micro-Economic Effects
The additional material put to us complements but, in our view, does not materially alter the import of the material before the April 1997 Safety Net Review and reviewed in Attachment G of the majority decision and pages 78 to 88 of the decision of Ross VP.
The material as a whole supports a conclusion that "moderate increases in the wages of the low paid, of themselves, do little or nothing to diminish their job prospects" [April 1997 decision at 28].
Some degree of caution arises in the absence of recent Australian studies. Nonetheless, given the body of international evidence of limited employment effects associated with significant minimum wage increases, particularly evident in more recent studies, the evidence suggests that moderate safety net increases are likely to have, at most, limited employment effects.
Appearances:
G. Belchamber for all applicant unions and with G. Combet and T. Harcourt for the Australian Council of Trade Unions.
B. O'Connor for the Australian Services Union.
S. Burnley for the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association.
T. Ferrari for the Australian Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union.
N. Delavec for the National Union of Workers.
A. Sachinidis with S. Schlesinger and J. Roe for the Automotive, Food, Metals, Engineering, Printing and Kindred Industries Union.
T. Smith for the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union.
R. Marles for the Transport Workers' Union of Australia.
J. Herdon for the Textile, Clothing and Footwear Union of Australia.
R. Hamilton with M. Diserio and D. Gregory for the Confederation of A.C.T. Industry, the respondent members of the Employers Federation of New South Wales, the respondent members of The Retail Traders' Association of New South Wales, respondent members of The Retail Traders' Association of Victoria, Victorian Employers' Chamber of Commerce and Industry, respondent members of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia, respondent members of the South Australian Employers' Chamber of Commerce and Industry, respondent members of the Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry, respondent members of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, respondent members of the Chamber of Manufacturers of New South Wales, the Australian Hotels Association, National Farmers' Federation, Australian Wool Selling Brokers Employers Federation and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
R. Boland for the Metal Trades Industry Association of Australia and the Engineering Employers Association, South Australia.
B. Watchorn with S. Cullen for The Australian Chamber of Manufactures.
E. Cole with M. James and M. Clarke-Lewis for the Minister for Workplace Relations and Small Business on behalf of the Commonwealth and on behalf of the governments of the States of Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia and the governments of the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory.
G. Hatton for the Motor Traders' Association of New South Wales and the Motor Trade Association of South Australia.
G. Pels for the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce and the Tasmanian Automobile Chamber of Commerce.
S. Pill for BTR Nylex.
M. Carter for the Australian Road Transport Industrial Organization.
J. Murphy with J. Compton for the State of New South Wales.
J. Ryan with M. Adams for the Australian Catholic Commission for Industrial Relations.
C. Harnath for The Master Plumbers' and Mechanical Services Association of Australia.
G. Johnston for the National Meat Association of Australia.
Ms Halligan with L. Field for the State of Western Australia.
C. Moore for The Motor Inn, Motel and Accommodation Association.
D. Byrne for Mayne Nickless.
M. Schaerf with D. Hildebrand for the State of Victoria.
M. Carter for the Australian Road Transport Industrial Organization.
Hearing details:
1997.
Melbourne:
November 10;
December 8-10.
1998.
February 17, 24-26;
March 3.
Decision Summary
Wage rates - Safety Net Review - Wages 1998 - arbitrated safety net adjustment and federal minimum wage - ACTU Living Wage claim - ACTU made a number of claims including $20.60 pw and $38.00 pw increases in minimum award rates from 22 April 1998 and 22 April 1999 respectively - Commission observed that since the 1997 decision inflation had continued to abate and employment to grow albeit slowly - increases awarded to apply from dates no earlier than date of variation of each award - applications for phasing in to be referred to President - Minimum Rates Awards - $14 pw increase in award rates up to and including $550 pw - $12 pw for award rates $550 to $700 pw - $10 pw for award rates above $700 pw - increases will generally only be available where award rates have not increased since November 1991 except by safety net, work value or minimum rates adjustments - increases to be fully absorbable against above award payments - allowances which relate to work or conditions and service increments also to be increased - Paid Rates Awards - paid rates awards may be increased if they have only received safety net increases since November 1991 - a general review into paid rates awards will be conducted - pending that review paid rates awards are not ordinarily to be varied to incorporate provisions of certified agreements - claim for 1999 increases to be decided now rejected - Federal Minimum Wage - Federal Minimum Wage increased by $14 pw - Statement of Principles - ACTU claim to rescind Statement of Principles rejected - a number of Principles simplified and others amended to reflect various aspects of the decision. | ||||
Applications by Textile, Clothing and Footwear Union of Australia and Ors to vary a number of awards (April 1998 Safety Net Review - Wages) | ||||
C No 23634 of 1997 and Ors |
Print Q1998 | |||
Giudice J Ross VP McIntyre VP MacBean SDP Watson SDP Gay C Cribb C |
Melbourne |
29 April 1998 |
Printed by authority of the Commonwealth Government Printer
Recommended retail price $10.00